TOKYO — An El Nino weather pattern is underway and will last until winter, Japan's weather agency said oFriday in the strongest statement yet by a national meteorological body, adding to fears about global food supplies hit by drought and soaring prices. Corn prices have surged more than 60 percent in the past two months as the United States reels from the worst drought in 56 years, while global soy supplies are also tight after drought in South America. Adding to worries, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday the world was closer to a repeat of a 2008 food crisis because of a spike in food costs. Latest data suggested the El Nino phenomenon had emerged, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, referring to conditions in the equatorial Pacific. “The chances are high that the El Nino phenomenon will be maintained until the winter," the agency said in a statement. The big unknown is how intense and how long the developing El Nino will be. An intense El Nino can cause widespread drought in Australia, parts of Africa, Southeast Asia and India, but also bring rains to other parts of the globe. While it can boost corn and soy crops in South America, wheat harvests can be devastated in Australia. Coffee, cocoa, rice and sugar output in Southeast Asia can also be hit. Officials said El Nino could kick in right at the end of the Indian monsoon in September, hurting winter wheat, rapeseed and chickpea crops. Drier weather would be good for China's autumn grain growing period, mostly corn and soybean, which accounts for more than 70 percent of the country's total grain output, a senior Chinese meteorological official said. El Nino is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years. It is the opposite of the very closely related La Nina pattern, which often triggers floods in Australia and parts of Asia. Intense back-to-back La Nina episodes occurred during 2010-12. The US Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), also warned that an El Nino was almost certain to occur over the next two months. The last severe El Nino in 1998 caused drought in Australia and Southeast Asia, withering crops and triggering forest fires. El Nino can also bring warmer, wetter winters in Japan and parts of North America, but any rains might be too late for the parched US corn crop. Indonesia's weather bureau said on Friday any El Nino would have limited impact on the country. “A weak El Nino will reduce rainfall in eastern and central Indonesia, but not significantly," weather bureau head Sri Woro B. Harijono told reporters. But in India, one of the world's largest food producers and consumers, with a population of 1.2 billion, El Nino will likely mean a drop in rainfall from September after an already erratic monsoon. Lower than average rains have threatened cereal and lentils production, although rainfall has picked up in the past week, weather officials say. El Nino typically causes drier weather over much of the country during the northern hemisphere summer, forecasters say.“El Nino is likely to reduce rainfall during the last month of the monsoon season," said D.S. Pai, lead forecaster of the Indian weather office, referring to September. That could cut winter crop production. — Reuters
