Forecasts for global paddy production over the ongoing 2009 season point to a mere 0.3 percent expansion to 689 million tons while rice prices are expected to continue downward, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said Friday. International rice prices have followed a downward trend since January this year, reflecting sluggish import demand. The world rice prices may continue to be under downward pressure in the coming months, said FAO. While still subject to much uncertainty, given its dependence on the monsoon, Asia is forecast to gather 623 million tons of paddy in 2009, unchanged from the new estimate of output in 2008. Afghanistan, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Iran, Myanmar, the Philippines and Vietnam are all anticipated to increase production in 2009, while India, Iraq, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and world's biggest exporter Thailand may face a contraction. The GCC states will import 60 percent of their food by 2010, FAO report said. The GCC food market is worth more than $12 billion a year, and the member states are exploring agricultural investments in Africa and Asia to meet rising demand. According to statistics from US Department of Agriculture, the global rice trade is expected to touch 37.4 million tons by 2017-2018, growing between 2.2 percent to 2.5 percent per year till 2018. Despite prospects of virtually no growth, a replication of the 2008 results over the on-going 2009 paddy season would still stand out as an “excellent performance” representing a four per cent increase from 2007, according to the latest issue of the FAO Rice Market Monitor. As this developed, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that rising sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean herald El Ni?o, which could disrupt the rains in major cereal producing regions. “Typically, an El Ni?o has the potential to disrupt the rainy seasons and cause lower rainfall in India, Australia, Southeast Asia - Philippines and Indonesia - southern Africa and Central America,” said Robert Stefanski, a WMO scientific officer who works on agriculture-related weather and climate issues. “In past El Ni?o events, droughts have occurred and lowered food production in many of these regions.” The main impact of El Ni?o events usually occur in the second half of the year, when eastern, northern, and parts of southern Australia would face an increased risk of below-average rainfall and above-average daytime temperatures, the Bureau said. Australia is the world's fourth largest exporter of wheat. “Any impact of El Ni?o on food production will be noticed after December 2009,” said Liliana Balbi, a senior economist at the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System. The FAO report said the outlook was generally positive in Africa, where some 25.6 million tons of paddy are forecast to be harvested in 2009, which would replicate the positive outcome of the 2008 season. In Latin America and the Caribbean, paddy production is forecast to rise by three percent to 27.4 million tons, while output is anticipated to rise in the European Union (EU) and the United States. Among the largest single rice markets, Brazil, the EU, Iraq, Iran, South Korea and Saudi Arabia are expected to step up imports while on the other hand, deliveries to Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria and Peru may be cut, even sharply, it said. The expansion in global rice trade is set to be fostered by increased exports from Argentina, Egypt, India, Myanmar, Pakistan and Vietnam, it added. In contrast, La Ni?a is the cooling of sea surface temperatures; both El Ni?o and La Ni?a are part of the normal climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean and occur once every four to seven years. According to WMO, “Recent changes are consistent with the early stages of a developing El Ni?o event in the second half of 2009.” A coming El Ni?o should be taken as an “early warning to potential problems related to food security, and this information is useful for agricultural decision-makers to plan for the upcoming season,” said Stefanski. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre warned in early June that “the odds of an El Ni?o are now thought to be above 50 percent, which is more than double the normal risk of an El Ni?o in any year.” ‘'A coming El Ni?o should be taken as an early warning to potential problems related to food security, and this information is useful for agricultural decision-makers to plan for the upcoming season.'' In Australia, “planting of the 2009 main winter cereal crops has been completed successfully, with reports until late June indicating favorable prospects,” she said. The monsoons are late in India, the world's third largest wheat producer. “Historically, there has been a link between El Ni?o and the Indian monsoons,” said Stefanski. Studies have shown that sea surface temperatures also affect this critical rainy season. The tardy monsoon in parts of Southeast Asia has raised alarms of “potential food emergency problems, for example, in India,” said Balbi. “In Pakistan, rains for the secondary rice season are also delayed.” However, Sri Lanka has had a good harvest. In Ethiopia, Sudan and Eritrea the main seasonal rains are out-of-step, and insufficient in parts of Kenya. Eastern Africa is already facing one of the worst food crises in recent times. “We are closely monitoring the relation of these developments with El Ni?o.” In southern Africa, “the 2009 main maize season harvest has just been concluded, so we do not expect any immediate effects,” said Balbi. __
