Madina Newspaper THE Syrian crisis is weaved into the complex fabric of Middle Eastern affairs which baffles many political observers outside the region following the Arab Spring that has taken the world by surprise. Nobody could have expected the series of events that toppled the regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya and that is currently threatening the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. The complex situation in the Middle East has emboldened Al-Assad to hold on to power and launch a bloody crackdown against the Syrian people who have been demanding that he step down so that they can set up their own government with a firm democratic foundation. Although he has lost a firm power base, he has taken advantage of the complex regional situation which has weakened the ability of the United Nations to respond firmly to the Syrian crisis. To understand the complex situation, let us take a wider look at the region. This might help us understand why the United Nations seems unable to take action against Al-Assad. Turkey: Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, many experts have bet on Turkey as a main player in ending the conflict either by pressure or military intervention. However, the less-than three million ruling Alawi minority in Syria has connections with the more than 10 million Alawi minority in Turkey. If Turkey attempts to topple the Alawi regime in Syria, it may face some difficulties at home. Lebanon: Lebanon seeks to free itself from the Syrian grip and influence over the past 50 years. However, the recent clashes between Alawites at Jabal Mohsin District and Sunnis at Bab Al-Tabbana District in Tripoli, Lebanon, reflect the Syrian influence in Lebanon. Moreover, some members of the Lebanese government have close ties with the Syrian regime and that explains why Lebanon refrained from denouncing Damascus or adopting sanctions against it. Iraq: Nouri Al-Maliki of Iraq supports Syria because he realizes that if the ruling Alawite regime — which is close to the Shiites — falls, Iraqi Sunnis will get stronger and this will weaken the grip of the Shiites in Iraq. It is better for Al-Maliki to support Syria and its Alawite regime. Iran: Iran keeps a close watch on the region. It maneuvers and instigates and provides finances behind the scene and sometimes participates directly in regional events as it does in some parts of Syria. Tehran is seeking hegemony in the region and tries to play a major role in international affairs regardless of whether it has the capability to play such a role or not. Tehran fears that the battle against the Syrian regime might be a prelude to a future battle against Iran. That is why Iran bets on the Syrian regime and vice versa. They are both in the same boat and will sink or float together. Tehran knows that if the Syrian regime falls it could derail its dream of developing nuclear energy, which many countries fear is aimed at making nuclear weapons. If its nuclear dream collapses, its influence in the region and international politics will be diminished. __
