The fourth joint ministerial council meeting between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Turkey which wrapped up in Istanbul earlier this week reflected the strong desire of the leaders of both sides to enhance strategic cooperation amid the dramatic changes that are taking place in the Middle East region. Indeed, there are some strong ties that could further facilitate such rapprochement, but it is also true that the past efforts in that regard were not up to the desired level. In light of the current circumstances in the region, there should exist two basic elements for a successful and effective strategic approach. The first one is threat assessment. Before two or more parties begin to implement a strategic cooperation plan, they should find answers to questions like: “Who will pose a potential threat?” “What is its expected scope and volume?” and “What can be done to deter such a threat?” Based on simple political calculations, the threats for both GCC and Turkey come from Iran and Israel. The Iranian hostile attitude towards Gulf countries usually escalates whenever Tehran's negotiations with the West on the nuclear issue reach an impasse. At that point, Iranian officials start to intensify their statements threaten the national security of the GCC countries. Late in December last year, Iranian Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned that no oil would be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz if the West applied sanctions on Iran's oil exports. The GCC will never be satisfied with this action, given the fact that tankers carrying millions of barrels of oil, mostly from the Gulf, pass through this waterway every day, accounting for nearly 35 percent of the world's seaborne crude shipments. Iran has recently shown the same attitude towards Turkey. One month before the Hormuz block threat, the head of the aerospace division of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, threatened to target NATO's missile defence shield in Turkey if the US or Israel attempted to destroy Iran's nuclear installations. Israel's threat to the Gulf and Arab countries originates from what Arabs believe is the bloody record of brutal actions in Palestine and in other Arab countries, its refusal to accept peace initiatives, its disregard of UN decisions and its continuous human rights violations. It is not difficult to understand why the Arab people have been nervous about the Israeli attitude and what that might do to the stability of the region. For Turkey, the Israeli threat is gaining momentum as the relation between the two countries deteriorates further. In September last year, Israeli FM Avigdor Lieberman's reported plans to support Kurd minorities in addition to strengthening cooperation with the Armenians, Turkey's historical rivals, and with their powerful lobby in Washington in order to punish Turkey for severing ties with Israel. The Turks took that threat seriously, even after Israel's presidential office distanced itself from Liberman's statements. The second element of strategic rapprochement deals with interests. Threat deterrence can be considered one type of mutual interest, but there are also historical, political and economic considerations that ultimately deepen cooperation. Relying on its historical relationships with the Arab world, Turkey has been trying to play a more significant role in the region benefiting from the strategic vacuum the destruction of Iraq has created. It has also tried to benefit from the increased popularity of PM Recep Tayyip Erdo?an in the Arab world and from the successful economic model the Justice and Development party has established and which Arabs admire. On the economic front, the volume of trade between the GCC and Turkey jumped to nearly $20 billion in 2011, but there is always a need to increase that number based on the economic capabilities of the two parties. The strategic cooperation between the GCC and Turkey should benefit from the common vision both sides have for the current developments in the region, but the biggest challenge will be the ability to cope with the fast changing political stakes in the Middle East. If previous efforts failed to meet both sides' aspirations, it is never too late to approach these aspirations again with more insistence, intensive joint action and sustainable common will to turn the proposed cooperation into a sound strategy rather than only a tactic in a political game. (Hatem Y. Ezz Eldin is a political researcher based in Jeddah. He can be reached at [email protected]) __
