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Attack gives Pakistan a chance to squeeze US
By Chris Allbritton
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 30 - 11 - 2011


Reuters
Pakistan's military has been handed a rare opportunity to press its strategic ambitions in neighboring Afghanistan after a cross-border NATO attack that killed 24 of its soldiers over the weekend.
Fury over the incident at home, where anti-American sentiment runs high, makes it likely that both the army chief, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, and the civilian government will play hardball with their ostensible ally, the United States. “The Pakistan military is clearly very angry at the turn of events and the army's top leadership is under tremendous pressure from middle-ranking offices and junior officers to react,” said Hasan Abbas at the US National Defense University's College of International Security Affairs.
That pressure will spur the military to flex its muscles in diplomatic manoeuvring with Washington in the run-up to the exit of US combat troops from Afghanistan in 2014.
Indeed, on Monday, the military's spokesman threatened to drastically reduce cooperation on peace efforts in Afghanistan, which could complicate US President Barack Obama's plans to bring the war there to an end.
Analysts said Pakistan will seek concessions from the United States as its price for Saturday's attack, in which NATO helicopters and fighter jets strafed two military outposts in northwest Pakistan, close to the Afghan border.
The Pakistani military said 24 soldiers were killed and 13 wounded. NATO called it a tragic, unintended incident. The concessions are likely to include giving Pakistan a greater say in the political settlement to end the war that would cement a role for Islamabad's allies in a future Kabul government. “From the military's point of view, here is a perfect opportunity to try to go on the offensive for a change,” said Kamran Bokhari, vice president for Middle Eastern and South Asian affairs at STRATFOR, a US-based intelligence consultancy.
“The Pakistanis are going to lay their terms out,” Bokhari said. “They're going to say ... whatever you're doing on that side of the border, we need more input into that and you need us to get you out of there and provide a safe exit.”
The border incident is the latest in a year of bust-ups between Islamabad and Washington — uneasily allied in the war on militancy since the September 11 attacks on the United States a decade ago.
First there was the jailing of a CIA contractor for shooting dead two Pakistanis in the city of Lahore. Then there was the secret US commando raid inside Pakistan that killed Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, and then came US accusations that Pakistan was involved in attacks on American targets in Afghanistan.
Pakistan's room for maneuvre is usually limited by its mutually dependent relationship with Washington, on which it depends for financial and military support. “Pakistan is in no position to do something that might lead to open hostilities, to war with the US,” said Shaukat Qadir, a retired brigadier general and analyst.
But this time Islamabad feels justly aggrieved and has several options to pressure the United States.
Already since Saturday's incident it has announced that it will review all military and diplomatic ties as well as intelligence sharing, and it has demanded the vacation of Shamsi air base in Baluchistan, where some CIA drones used against militants in the tribal areas of Pakistan are reportedly based. __


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