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Will a Syrian-Turkish war start?!
Al-Riyadh Editorial
Published in Alriyadh on 12 - 10 - 2012

Are the border clashes between turkey & Syria run by various parties, where Kurds are used for starting a Kurdish-Syrian-Iraqi battle through motives and support from Russia, Iran & Iraq, especially if we know that the Kurdish game has been a case open to many possibilities for many decades?
President Hafez Al-Assad tried to protect the Kurdish leader Abdulla Ojlan in the Lebanese Bekaa Valley through the guarding of the Syrian Army there. However, the said action led Turkey to threaten to launch a war against North of Syria. Thus, Al-Assad was cautious enough then as he moved Ojlan out of Syria to be caught later in Kenya through international intelligence action that led to delivering him to Government of Ankara.
The attempt of transferring the internal problem of Syria to Turkey is governed by big risks as the fire responses between the two parties can still be controlled, but what if Al-Assad authority tried to expand it under a pressure from its allies as it is thought that the Alawites of Turkey will move t support Syria during its war with Turkey. However, the said belief is a mere illusion led by unreal ideas. Kurds, themselves, want to exploit the revolution for declaring a state in their area in a similar way to the one in North of Iraq with which they can merge with the Iraqi Kurds later to create a nucleus for the broader state.
Creating such a reality is governed by hypothesis and ideas that may consider such an issue as a Kurdish encirclement for Turkey. Such encirclement is refused by NATO members who may support Turkey in any coming confrontation. The problem created y Kurds is that they kept being the game of the interrelated powers in the area they are present in.
Iran's Shah agreed with Israel on launching a war against the government of Saddam Hussein for drowning him in a long-lasting Guerrilla war for draining his power. However, the war between Iran & Iraq had stopped after Agreement of Algeria and, thus, power of Saddam Hussein has been enhanced and led to his using of chemical weapons against them which led, in return, to massive massacres for taking revenge.
The scenarios may be repeated with Turkey as an attempt from Al-Assad for reducing the pressure that Turkey is practicing which is leading his opponents & the Free Army towards fighting his regime. However, if we compare the power balance between the two countries it shall show clearly that Turkey is much stronger in all kinds of weapons, in addition to the NATO power added to Turkey's one. Accordingly, if the adventure occurs through Syria's continuation of launching its mortars and missiles at Turkey's borders; a war may start and lead to invading the whole North of Syria. In this case, Iran or Russia won't be able to enter into a war that may lead to a world war just for the sake of Syria.
Al-Assad's regime tried to create hostilities between the Syrian Kurds and the Syrian Arabs, the way he led the Alawites towards being in a war with all components of the Syrian nation. Such behaviors neither save the regime nor make it last longer. They actually assemble other forces against him where various considerations are present such as unifying the internal forces and their receiving of broader support from various Arab and international parties.
Playing with fire with powers which armament and abilities are equal to the Syrian army is a risky operation of a regime which knows that he does not have a cover that can lead it to victory. Its crisis cannot be solved by starting battles with its neighbors but by abandoning the dreams for understanding the reality which is heading towards ending the family's reign legend.


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