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Will Al-Assad drag the neighboring countries to a war with him?!
Al-Riyadh's Editorial
Published in Alriyadh on 29 - 07 - 2012

Syria is stuck between the Arab concern & the international lack of interest as it entered into the stage of standardized death by Al-Assad Forces. It may be that his feeling that the unhappy end or the coming defeat is approaching will push him towards expanding the battle prolonging its time.
The Syrian forces have entered the Lebanese territories several times while the Alawite minority in Lebanon moved to support Al-Assad's regime and reduce the pressure it is suffering from. Few clashes occurred with the Jordanian army yesterday's night & a similar scenario may happen with Iraq if the Iraqi tribes and citizens who support the Syrian revolution decided to move towards Syria in a way that shall push Al-Assad towards starting another battle.
In spite of the existence of Alawite Minority in Turkey close to the Syrian borders who sympathize with the Syrian regime, their attitude constitute no more than a psychological support as Al-Assad has no power or influence to move them, though he would have done so if he had been able to. Furthermore, any clash with Turkey shall provide it with the justification required for performing military operations, if they are limited. In spite of the great difference in power balance in favor of Turkey, Al-Assad may be dragged to such folly which results on his future shall be complex and tough.
Israel has kept being silent with no motion, though it has been watching, monitoring and checking. However, when fears from Syria's chemical weapons increased, especially in regard to smuggling them to Hezbollah; Israel dealt with the matter seriously up to the threat of military intervention. The siege that Al-Assad is witnessing and his feeling that the outlets have started to close may implicate / involve Syria in a war with Israel. However, Israel has its own calculations and knows well that such war shall raise the claims of its being an aggressor country which abuse the circumstances for expanding purposes, in addition to that its experiment of occupying Beirut and its subsequent war with the Lebanese south must reduce its motive for starting a new war against Syria.
The international situation is soft or inactive & someone is drawing the division of Syria through a Russian, American & Israeli agreement. However, even if such scenario is existed, the Syrian environment shall be turned to complete cells of extremism that will affect all the surrounding countries. The most affected party from such scenario may be Israel itself as it is going to be, then, close to Al-Qaeda in Syria & Hezbollah in Lebanon where some regional powers may push such trends towards their maximum limits and damages may reach Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan & Iraq to constitute a security and political dilemma.
The internal solutions are not possible due to that even if the game of Security Council has provided Al-Assad with the maximum limits for killing his people; transferring the case to the United Nations is a new solution where the international community shall have the stronger voice that will not allow the international game to last longer at all if the military intervention decision is taken for resolving the case of saving the Syrian nation. Russia & some other countries may object such decision while the attitude of Europe & the United States shall be morally exposed, where they will face the options of either voting and gaining the international public opinion to show that the opponent foe is Russia or adopting the neutrality which shall be considered as a weak and illogical attitude by most world countries. In all cases, Syria is on the line of fire and its issues shall be resolved by its own conflicting parties.


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