The telegraph sent by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques to the Lebanese president summarized the situation by stating that "There are external parties that do not want goodness for Lebanon & the Arabs." He who interprets these words through a realistic analysis shall realize that Lebanon could get rid of the civil war through "Al-Taief" Agreement but the traces of such war are still remaining under ashes, where three powers have become able to control its destiny due to the presence of its supporters within the Lebanese political and social structure. Syria is present strongly & the obsession of that Lebanon had been cut from it as per an international conspiracy present in its mind kept the case movable and renewable towards heading to better or worse condition for any reason, while its complex of that Lebanon has been the kitchen where the conspiracies and coops against it have been always baked constituted the plot of the confrontation. There are, for sure, parties which have serving it during the times of the various Lebanese governments, regardless of that the authority in Syria is a unitary national one or a radical one which raises the slogans of confrontation and resistance. The reasons behind Lebanon's latest crisis are summarized by that the Syrian government, in most cases, do not want Lebanon to be flourished and stable due to that it stimulates its authority and nation together. Israel made Lebanon a field for its experiments where it can smuggle its spies and create disorder and wars. Israel's earlier occupation of Lebanon had been facilitated by internal powers in it which believed that its ally with a major regional power shall help them to control it politically and militarily. Lebanon's civil war resulted in kinds and forms of allies which are still existed and able to return to the same policies again, even if the reason behind ending the occupation was to terminate the power of the Palestinians. Iran, as a third power, did not have the power and expansion by which it can control Lebanon at that time. "Amal" with the Palestinians constituted the arm that was opposing Israel but as Lebanon's leaders move according to their own interests; "Amal" turned against the Palestinians and constituted one of the reasons behind restricting their power and expelling their leaderships to Tunisia. Meanwhile, Hezbollah rose, confronted "Amal" and could, with the support of Iran, become the sole power in the whole internal yard of Lebanon. Thus, Iran has had this "Shiite arc" in this country whenever it wants. The latest clash between the "Alawites" supported by Syria & Hezbollah & the "Sunni" sect represents a test for the Sunnis weight / power in Lebanon as Syria feels that they represent the spearhead in regard to supporting the Syrians who oppose the Syrian state's authority. However, the reality is much bigger than this simple reaction which is planned for notifying the State of Lebanon that if it does not interfere and deter those who are supporting the Syrian rebels; the alternative shall be a civil war between all sects. However, even though the arms are present in the hands of all the components which fought the earlier civil war; Hezbollah represents the bigger and more important power that can resolve the case in a way that serves its interests and Syria's interest, too. The strategies of these powers which are controlling Lebanon may vary according to the vision of each country and its assessment for Lebanon's internal condition. In spite of that Israel is a hated party; Lebanese have no objection if it ends their worry from Hezbollah and his power in case of the occurrence of any clash between them. From Israel's side; Israel wishes a civil war that drains the power of Iran and Hezbollah together and leaves the Christian, Sunni & Durzi parties within a condition that forces them to ally together or, if not so, be fragmented. Syria knows that its power balance is bigger and seeks to create a new disorder in the territories of its little neighbor to terrify the West, especially France, in regard to the reoccurrence of a civil war. However, the magic may be turned negatively against the magician in a way that may lead Beirut towards being a financing and supply base for the Syrian Opposition under an Arab & international commitment. At this point; all calculations may be lost but Lebanon shall remain a center for an international collision at any moment or hour.
