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Arab changes, the probabilities and risks.
Published in Alriyadh on 14 - 05 - 2011

the former Soviet Union republics were ruled by an iron fist. Communists wiped out religious beliefs, displaced people from their land to other republics and imprisoned those who speak their local languages or declare their nationality. After disintegration, calls to restore original cultures and religions and to break free from lawless state were easy and without complications or crisis.
Changes following seventy bloody years of ruling did not lead to minority against majority war or cracks while these countries contain different ethnic and national groups. The Slovaks separated from the Czech Republic without acute reactions, and it makes one wonders that transformation from communist to national ruling system took place so delicately without causing a shock waves.
Most of the Arab world was ruled by colonialism, and had different levels of relationship with each country. National movements fought rigorously and paid dear prices for independence, the result was amazing. National leaders ruled and promising democratic constitutions were introduced. Social and economical changes were born promising good margins for freedom. Parties were formed, the judiciary system was independent and shortages of colonization were addressed. Capital cities were thriving due to "technocrats" handling of the establishment of different organizations. Yet, the charm of socialism promised justice, the elimination of monopoly and the unjust of capitalism was a tempting cause for the leaders of the newly established Arab armies.
Series of coups started in Syria and was only ended by the ideology-free, non-partisan youth-led new uprisings. Although in their beginnings, negative phenomena started to emerge out of these uprisings such as religious conflicts, different factions that want to settle differences against elements of the government, ethnic and tribal minorities. Assuming that all revolutions in the world have created chaos and contradictions following changes. Economical deterioration, import, export, tourism and hard currency losses will place more burdens on the government and will be inevitable if no swift measures, such as controlling public chaos and launching reforms, are not adopted. Certainly delaying wages and shortage of savings will provoke people and hence cast negatively on the uprising. This problem has already emerged in these countries, which threatens a coup against those uprisings.
The question is: why other countries in different continents, whether evolving from communist ruling or being a former Western or American colonies, managed to easily remove dictatorship regimes or broke away from domination to start a reformation system to the extent that two such under developing countries, India and Brazil, are making international impact, progressive development and wise leadership despite poverty, religious and cultural differences. The Arab world, on the hand, enjoys all required elements for economical and cultural integration. The problem remains that we agree to disagree.


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