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Libya...Colonization...Civil War
Published in Alriyadh on 09 - 03 - 2011

Will the West colonize Libya out of deposing Al Gaddafi in order to repeat Saddam deposition? The American authorities thought that Iraqis would welcome them with roses and celebrations; but what happened was something else. The national dignity came out which helped Al-Qaeda to strike its roots to fight the invaders more fiercely than Saddam followers. At this moment, USA did not find support from government faces, police or religious bodies it made.
Libya area is big and most of it is not inhibited yet. Also, it is surrounded by poor countries which will push their over-population in case of security disorders. Al Gaddafi blackmailed Europe when he facilitated the illegal immigration out of Libya, and after they bribed him with few millions the number decreased. However Al-Qaeda may take advantage of any security gaps to gather its followers from Maghreb and other countries.
No one doubts that Al Gaddafi is anomalous, and no one knows how he managed to rule for 42 years except with his police force. He used the society paradoxes; but the unhappy ends for him need intellectual thinking. The worse is that the two wings of power (USA and Europe) which prefer the invasion or at least taking some steps that will not involve them as in Iraq and Afghanistan on one hand, and Russian-Chinese rejection on the other hand. The reason for that conflict is clear: the oil. The oil stock in which China was an effective investor becomes the field of battle although the regime is deposed because it is old and the worst regime ever.
After the end of internal conflicts, the happenings may create different trends. The reasonable grounds for civil war are present because of tribe's differences and oil temptations as happened in Iraq. Despite of the huge resources, the imported democracy with the power of American arms opened the door for robbery and plundering of the country's properties which represents the worst figure for American invasion. Libya has the temptations of internal conflicts in different areas. Consequently, Europe the near neighbor will cause Libya more crises because of the oil stop if security disorder continued. The worst is that Libya may turn to be the base for terrorists gathered from the whole world.
Guardianship era is over, and the colonization nowadays will be fought in a way differs from the past. The monopoly of countries resources encourages the arrival of new powers like China and other Asian countries. In this case, some different situation will occur: the armed support for people to fight Al Gaddafi will turn to a national trend which agreed upon some steps to rescue the country. But if invasion occurred, it would be met by celebrations at first but later the friend of yesterday will be the enemy of tomorrow. This paradox is not less important than the hesitation between invasion and the far support for the Libyan people.


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