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No Nuclear Resurrection in the Middle East
Published in AL HAYAT on 30 - 09 - 2009

The European-American reaction – and hence the Israeli one – to Iran's announcement of building a new nuclear plant in Qum, is exaggerated, especially since the United States and Britain confirmed that they have known about the building of the station for months and that they reported it to Russia. This exaggeration has made some of them draw the scenario of the Israeli strike against the Iranian reactors, and the Iranian missile response which will be deterred by and foiled by the American ships located in the Mediterranean Sea. This deterrence is to be followed by the destruction of half of Iran at least. According to this scenario, this would mean resurrection in the Middle East.
This atmosphere was reinforced by President Obama's war statements, and his warnings against the seriousness of the new discovery, as well as the echoes of these warnings represented by the French and British warnings which were not unusual but rather more clamorous. Also, these warnings coincided with a decline in the Russian position that supports Iran. In brief, everyone has forgotten their interest in the Middle East, and the destruction of this region has become a must to the world's peace. The United States overlooked its need for stability in the region as a prelude for its announced withdrawal from Iraq in a year from now. It also overlooked its need for Iran in order for it to continue its depleting war in Afghanistan, let alone the need of its army and the NATO armies for more forces, time, and alliances, according to its military leaders who warned against undermining this issue.
Just as the Western response seemed exaggerated, so were the comments of President Ahmadinejad, who did not miss the chance to caution everyone against dire consequences and warn them that they will regret their statements.
All this occurred on the eve of negotiations between both parties. The media debate in preparation for these negotiations seemed more than a real warning of nuclear resurrection. This confirms that Iran did not need to reveal its secret plant at this time or officially request the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to supervise it. This means that Iran started negotiating before the negotiations were actually held, in order to determine their course by saying that the IAEA is familiar with its program and supports it, before others accuse it of hiding secrets from this international institution.
The Westerners, especially the United States, realize this very well. They also realize that their interests in the Middle East require from them to spread stability. Besides, large international institutions view the Iranian nuclear program as a primitive one that it is still very far from manufacturing a [nuclear] bomb or weapons. Their reaction was very violent for two additional reasons. First, to confirm, on the eve of the negotiations, that the West is united in confronting it [Iran], and that Russia which supports it, is willing to abandon it and adopt the comprehensive sanctions if Iran does not succumb to conditions. The second reason is an American one par excellence, and is aimed at covering the retreat of Obama in front of Benjamin Netanyahu who returned from Washington and New York with a resounding victory over the White House, when he insisted on rejecting the suspension of settlement activities, on the universal recognition of the Jewish aspect of Israel, and on normalizing the relations with the Arabs to start negotiations "without preconditions".
In order to complete the picture and make everyone forget the pledges of Obama's administration regarding the Middle East, emphasis was made on demonizing Iran and its nuclear aspirations. The joint American-Israeli military maneuvers were depicted as a need to reaffirm their alliance in the face of the imminent Iranian threat.
The Western-Iranian negotiations will last a long time. Israel will be the absent-present factor in all their details. Whenever the situation gets complicated, Israel will threaten to strike Iran. It will manipulate any Western concession to reinforce its arsenal and consolidate its occupation. We are afraid to believe the argument of the nuclear resurrection and to build our policies accordingly.


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