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The Bank Of "Deposits" In Syria
Published in AL HAYAT on 07 - 11 - 2013

Whenever a fighter in an armed faction or a Syrian soldier raises the victory sign at the end of a fight, silent weeping ensues among families who no longer know where to escape the nightmare of death. Has killing become so futile, whether with the bullets of the regime, the opposition, or those claiming victories preventing the crushing of "people's will"?
UN-Arab Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi's status on the other hand is unlike that of the "victors" in Syria who do not care about the lists of dead – if they are counted – or about their names. Brahimi is getting ready for lengthy preliminary negotiations before summoning two delegations, i.e. one representing the Syrian regime and the other the opposition, provided that the latter is "convincing." Hence, the mediator, who is reiterating his rejection of preconditions for the negotiations, imposed a condition related to the convincing character of the opponents of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, thus throwing the ball in their court prior to their meeting in Istanbul. He is aware of the fact that numerous fighting factions do not perceive the National Coalition as being a unifying entity capable of acting as the sole representative of the oppositionists during the Geneva 2 conference.
For its part, the regime's condition to head to the negotiations also featured the non-surrender of power to the Coalition, at a time when this Coalition, which has not yet been abandoned by Washington, is insisting on the opposite.
Brahimi is not doing the victory sign, nor is he holding a magic wand. The regime however seems confident about the accomplishments it secured through the besieging of the Coalition and the Free Army with a tug of war and their depletion with the bullets of the army and the supporters of Al-Qaeda. Hence, the American-Russian meeting in Geneva in the presence of the mediator who is accused of siding with Al-Assad merely resulted in an agreement to invite Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq to Geneva 2, at a time when Brahimi continued to pressure the opposition to send a convincing delegation to the dialogue table, while continuing to ignore Damascus' non-recognition of the Geneva 1 statement, or at least its rejection of the formation of a transitional government with full prerogatives.
If what the Russians are saying in their repeated complaints about the oppositionists' division and their wager on foreign intervention is true, what is also true is that this public complaint conceals relief towards the weakness of Al-Assad's opponents and the retreat of their popularity. Consequently, the Russians' wager on the Syrian president's stay in power is convincing enough for them to extend the second stage of the conflict and renew the regime's military machine.
By doing so, they are almost using the old and renewed Israeli method, by which Israel accuses the Palestinians of undermining the negotiations although it is the one doing so, or complains about the absence of a negotiating partner. Kremlin can probably reach the stage of eliminating the partner in Geneva 2 while benefitting from the experience of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and will definitely try – as will Damascus – to publically insist on the benefits of dialogue, at a time when the ongoing dialogue of the deaf with the Americans is only producing utter despair.
This circle of despair is becoming complete among some of the Syrian regime's oppositionists, considering that the only thing growing in Syria is the regime's tree and the fruits of hatred that are extending the years of devastation. The latter are thus asking whether anyone still remember the American promises/conditions for the armament of the opposition, and whether any state knew Washington's answer as to how Al-Assad can be convinced to step down and let a transitional government assume power. They are also asking whether or not the concomitance of the distraction and exhaustion courses is a mere coincidence, along with America's distraction of Israel from Syria and the Iranian nuclear file through the silent and failed negotiations with the Palestinians, and the exhaustion of the fighters in Syria, carried out by Moscow, Tehran and Damascus.
Israel was offered the "gift" of Syria's chemical disarmament, so that the Russian godfather assumes the management of the ongoing war in it. As for Iran, it was also given a "gift," i.e. the opportunity to prove the peaceful character of its nuclear program, to start getting rid of the sanctions and relinquish the nuclear bomb card to assume roles following the elimination of the effects of the Syrian revolution!
Still, the greatest gift was given to Obama, through another Iranian facilitation of a safe American exit from Afghanistan, Tehran's commitment to the understanding after Washington pulled out its troops from Iraq, and Kremlin's assignment by Obama's administration to contain the wars with the jihadists in Syria, so that they do not expand to the neighboring states that are already being burned by its flames and the volcanoes of the Arab spring.
While the game of the nations inside and over Syria is producing numerous surprises, including Al-Assad's regime retaliation against "dreamers," Tehran is also surprising everyone by going from being the archenemy of the Jihadists in Syria, to being a bank for the deposits of influence cards over them. And as soon as it orders them to leave to book a seat in Geneva, the war arenas will be free from foreign fighters.


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