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Geneva 2 On The Strings Of The Russians And Americans
Published in AL HAYAT on 31 - 10 - 2013

No one will invite Al-Nusra Front or the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant to reserve a seat in Geneva 2, just like no one can presume that the conference will be held as per the conditions of the Syrian regime, which is still insisting on its "paternity" claims over any settlement or solution to stop the bloodshed.
Let us imagine for example seeing the opposition asked to attend the Geneva conference, while the regime enjoys the exclusive right to classify the organizations and factions based on standards distinguishing between the patriotic and unpatriotic. The Coalition's predicament is that it is neither recognized as the legitimate representative of the opposition by the opposition on the internal arena, nor as patriotic according to the standards of the regime, which is still relying on the Western pressures to crush whatever hope is left in the Coalition's ability to induce political change following the Geneva conference. The regime is also relying on the Russians' successful ruining of the opposition's reputation, considering that it is not succumbing to their wishes to have a revised version of the regime, as a price for the bloodbath and its victims.
President Al-Assad planted the first mine on the path leading towards Geneva by not excluding his running in next year's presidential elections and planted the second when he requested the discontinuation of the support offered to the armed groups and factions as a necessary condition for the success of dialogue. Thus, he could proceed with the weakening of the factions and the division of the oppositionists until the last moment. Indeed, the longer the conflict lasts, and the more the word "terrorism" prevails over that of revolution and the violations continue to crush the legitimacy of the confrontation against the regime, its apparatuses and allies, the more the rust of the conflict will cause the rotting of the Syrians' cause and the erosion of their dreams.
Rust and decay are seen on the sidelines of the diffuse devastation that swept the cities, villages and pillars of society, at a time when the Coalition is about to lose all its cards. And whoever seeks a purpose for each conference of support held by the Friends of the Syrian People, can barely detect a race to stage meetings aiming to bring together all the sides of the opposition, just like the ones sought by Spain and Austria.
Through a simple recollection of what followed the war drums and their dissipation, between those who have lost hope in the solution and in the West's promises, the Russian hands and the Iranian fingers, some are still insisting that those in charge of international decision-making have sacrificed the revolution in exchange for the Syrian chemical arsenal. This is why the certificates of good behavior were consecutively given to the regime by the United Nations and America, and why its hands were cut lose as long as it is engaged in a bitter conflict against numerous terrorists and a few armed oppositionists. Damascus has become accustomed to changing the rules of the game and the regime has seized the initiative and started to impose conditions on Geneva 2 - considering they mark its prelude – such as the one related to the discontinuation of the "support of terrorism."
The revolution has retreated and the news is no longer about the daily count of the victims, the regime's insistence on military settlement, or the starvation of tens of thousands of Syrians. The news now surrounds the number of oppositionists still fighting outside the umbrella of An-Nusra and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.
Along the path leading towards Geneva, the third mine was planted by Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem, whose condition was that Syria should lead the dialogue to allow the regime to have the first say. What dialogue can there be when the convict in the killing of the revolution with a horrific war becomes the judge? It simply relinquished the chemical card to preserve the veto card at the level of whichever settlement that does not renew its own blood. And assuming President Barack Obama's administration becomes disgruntled over Damascus' stalling of the solution, does any sane person in the region still believe that Washington might seek the use of any card to convince it of the futility of the illusion surrounding the changing of its skin?
Among the oppositionists, some are accusing Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil who was ousted by Al-Assad of trying to change his skin and of playing on the strings of the Russians and Americans in the hope of winning the first seat in a "hidden" deal, in which Damascus appears to perceive Minister Sergei Lavrov's involvement. Regardless of Qadri's intentions, it would be hard to believe that American Ambassador Robert Ford's goal behind his first meeting in Geneva – which caused the toppling of the deputy prime minister who is passionate about politics – was merely to inform him that Al-Assad's regime has lost its legitimacy.
For its part, the regime is also playing on the strings of the Russians and Americans, using the time sword to divide whatever is left of the opposition abroad. Even if it does not topple the Geneva meeting or the monologue discussion, the opposition on the domestic arena has succumbed and the crises surrounding the fighting, Takfir and terrorism have been deferred until after the destruction of the chemical arsenal and once the Syrian people's right to express their wish to see the extension of Al-Assad's term is guaranteed, before the war's death toll hits 150,000.
Did Arab-UN Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi not say that what was required for the Geneva meeting was a "convincing opposition" and a regime that is convinced of it, with Iran as an active witness?


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