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Kerry's Reassurances In London
Published in AL HAYAT on 25 - 10 - 2013

The meeting held in London on Tuesday by the Friends of Syria group that includes 11 countries, was perceived by influential Arab and non-Arab ministers who participated in it as being the best since the establishment of this so-called core group. Even the opposition represented by head of the Coalition Ahmad Jarba believed that its circumstances were riper. The main reason is that in his address before the group, American Secretary of State John Kerry presented some sort of an apology for the disappointment and sorrow caused by the American decision not to carry out a military strike against Syria. It was also an apology for the questions and doubts that surrounded the American position, after the focus was placed on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 2118 related to the destruction of the nuclear program, in addition to the uncertainties this provoked in regard to the reality of the American commitment. Nonetheless, it did confirm the American commitment to supporting the Syrian opposition while insisting on a political solution based on Geneva 1, which made the cynics – and there are many of them among the United States' friends and allies - believe that the meeting was better and beneficial.
Also in this meeting, Kerry assured that he conveyed this viewpoint to Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal during their bilateral talks, assuring that the American administration was upholding its commitment to support the moderate Syrian opposition and that it was important to engage in coordination to help this opposition and exclude the extremists. For his part, Prince Saud al-Faisal stressed his determination to work with all the sides in the group to assist these same opposition elements, adding that Saudi Arabia has already deployed immense efforts, that the Syrian opposition National Council was suffering from the lack of financial aid, that the extremists were receiving outside help, and that the Security Council should confirm its trust in the moderate opposition. Prince Saud also insisted that if coordination is instated, this could help the moderate Syrian opposition head to Geneva.
The climate that prevailed over the London meeting was positive, after a period of doubts among Western and Arab states towards the American policy in Syria. Nevertheless, this meeting failed to reach any results in regard to the staging of Geneva 2, firstly because Al-Assad will not allow the dispatch of representatives from the regime, and secondly because the Russian reading into the Geneva 1 decisions is different than that of the other parties, seeing how Russia disapproves the ousting of Al-Assad and the stripping of all his prerogatives, including the military and security ones as stressed by Kerry during his press conference. Kerry's public statements in the press conference and his private ones in meetings were reassuring at the time, but Barack Obama's reluctant positions towards the Syrian conflict remain alarming. Indeed, Obama is primarily interested in destroying the Syrian chemical arsenal, sealing a deal with Iran over the nuclear file, normalizing the relations with it, and securing good relations with Russia. But when it comes to the Syrian conflict - and as long as Syria has not yet started to turn into a stronghold for Al-Qaeda - he is not very interested in what is happening on the ground. However, the disgruntlement of his allies in Europe and the Arab world pushed the American secretary to temporarily reassure them, knowing that when we asked French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius in London if he believed the American reassurances, he said: "I believe what I heard," although the absence of certainty in regard to the American position is justified to many. Today, the question is about whether or not the American administration will truly negotiate with Russia based on Geneva 1 and Al-Assad's stripping of all his prerogatives, and whether or not it will get that from Russia.
What is odd is that all the participants in the London meeting stressed the necessity of organizing Geneva 2 and stopping the bloodshed in Syria. Nonetheless, the conditions of this conference have not yet been secured, although the preparations for it are ongoing as though it will certainly be held. The American administration and the members of the core group hope to see the unification of the Syrian opposition military formations under the banner of General Salim Edriss. But this will not be possible on the ground without military support to face the warplanes and missiles of the head of the Syrian regime, who is using them to fight and kill his own people. Hence, seeing an imminent political solution is unlikely, and the longer the war lasts and the number of dead and refugees increases, the more the threat grows throughout the region. In the meantime, Putin is looking with relief at his regained influence in the face of the superpower, which had no sooner been relieved of the Soviet Union than Putin emerged on the Russian arena to restore the Soviet luster in the Middle East.


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