The spring of 2014 will see presidential elections that involve problems and complications in the Arab world, in Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, and Algeria. As long as the war rages in Syria with Bashar Assad as president, in practical terms no presidential election can result from a transitional government with full executive powers, as stipulated by the Geneva communiqué of last year. Likewise, the traditional type of election by the Assad regime, in which the president's mandate is renewed by receiving the support of 99 percent of Syrian voters, is no longer possible. If a Geneva 2 peace conference actually takes place, there could be a suspicious deal between Russia and the United States over presidential elections. These could take place based on the Russian approach followed by President Vladimir Putin, who gave way to his prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, in a tragi-comic experience for Russian democracy. This saw Putin exit the presidency and then return to it later, with the agreement of the entire world. It is not unlikely that President Barack Obama, who is unconcerned with the domestic situation in Syria, will allow such a horrific model to come to pass for the future of Syria and the region. Such a solution would suit Israel, especially if Syria gets rid of its chemical weapons arsenal. Obama's friends in the region should prepare themselves for further disappointments with his policy in the Middle East. The Syrian opposition should bolster its strength on the ground, because the only political solution will be at its expense under such a White House, which one day demands that Assad leave office, followed by praise for his destruction of chemical weapons at record speed – just as he used them to kill at record speed. Another important presidential election will take place in Egypt, where all eyes are on the minister of defense, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Sisi. Some say that he will be a candidate, while others are a bit more hesitant, saying that it is not in his interest at present – on the contrary, he is now in a position of strength. In this view, it would be better for the military to remain a protector of democratic political parties in Egypt, because of the difficult economic situation and the huge dangers to the country's social and political situation. As for the election of a new president for Lebanon, this also presents a conundrum, just like the formation of a new government in that country. Lebanon is divided between Hezbollah and its local and regional allies (Syria and Iran), and groups that want an independent, sovereign country, unconnected to the fighting in Syria of the wishes of Iran. President Michel Suleiman does not want an extension of his term or an amendment of the Constitution. He also is not welcome by Hezbollah and its allies, who believe that with a caretaker government, they can elect a new president from among their supporters. The election of Suleiman followed the Doha Accord, which was done away with by the Syrian regime. Which other Arab country will be concerned about the presidency in Lebanon, with all eyes on what is taking place in Egypt and Syria? This is a mistake, because Iran and the Assad regime (despite its weakness) are allies of Hezbollah and are very concerned with the party's retaining its influence over everything that happens in Lebanon. No doubt, the presidential election in Lebanon is an additional problem, added to the current political vacuum and deterioration. In Algeria, newspapers have begun to talk about the possibility of prompting President Abdel-Aziz Bouteflika to amend the new Constitution to give him another presidential term. This is a just a rumor for now, but in Algeria rumors are often trial balloons put forward by a faction in the military. The situation is foggy when it comes to the military, but how can Bouteflika's term be extended when he is still recovering from a stroke, which has affected his movement and speech? When he chaired a meeting of the Cabinet, his remarks were written, and the people were unable to hear his voice. How can his term be extended when he is in such a state, while there are plenty of competent figures who could run for president? Algeria is rich in oil and gas and has large financial reserves, but it continues to suffer from poverty and backwardness on all fronts, because of large-scale corruption. The presidential race has now kicked off in earnest, with the announcement by former Minister Ahmad Benbitour that he is running, while there is the possibility that former Prime Minister Ali Benflis will run also. In the end, the military, represented by five or six generals, will select one of these individuals, with whom they can agree, and thus that person will become Algeria's next president. Bouteflika's declining health has not prevented those close to him, and those in the military who are opposed to military intelligence chief General Toufik Mezian, whose influence is dominant, from hinting at the possibility of a constitutional amendment to renew the mandate of a president whose health does not allow him to carry out his duties. This news reflects disputes within the military, but it will end up in an agreement on a president that suits the military. Without such an agreement, the Algerian military is aware that in a time of popular uprisings and changes in the Arab world it would be better to stand together, because showing division will threaten the institution's future. Thus, the developments surrounding presidential elections in the Arab world in 2014 are part of the uprisings and the deterioration of political and social conditions, which are a common feature in these countries. And anyone with the means to leave these countries is ready to emigrate.
