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A Breakthrough between Rabat and Tripoli?
Published in AL HAYAT on 11 - 09 - 2009

Was Libyan President Mu'ammar al-Qaddafi concerned about looking for a reason that would make him closer to the Sahara issue? Nothing denies or confirms such a desire, considering Al-Qaddafi's aspirations to have his country assume a certain role in any conflict, especially since the African Union summit hosted by Tripoli focused on settling the regional conflicts in the African Continent. The reason why we are raising this hypothesis is that the Libyan president called on Morocco, in front of a political party delegation, to join the African Union. Beyond no doubt, he realized that the problems that triggered Morocco's withdrawal from the Organization of the African Unity were of political dimensions. This is not because the recognition of the accession of the "Sahara Republic" - which was declared unilaterally – is in contradiction with the charter of the organization in terms of the lack of the conditions of sovereignty, land, and people only, but because many African capitals suspended their recognition of an independent Sahara entity. This has turned the issue to a key problem, as long as the dossier was still on the table of the United Nations.
If we recognize that there is no legal precedent that cancels a regional organization's recognition of a certain entity, then it becomes objective to look into how to overcome the problem through a political initiative. The best way out is to wait for the results of the efforts of the United Nations, which could encourage the Libyan president to intervene in the conflict, seeing that he has become convinced with the concepts of international legitimacy and interested in undertaking roles on the African arena.
If Al-Qaddafi dealt with the emerging crisis with Morocco like a teacher who wants to give his students a lesson in dealing with others, then the means is what matters. Thus, it becomes acceptable, now that the clouds of crisis between Rabat and Tripoli have cleared, that this quake should entail a certain step towards the right direction.
The period when Al-Qaddafi used to consider his support for the Polisario Front a response to the stand of the Moroccan regime - which used to exchange with Al-Qaddafi his hostile feelings – is over. So did the bitter conflicts between both countries, which took the crisis of Chad and the African arena as an appealing space for exchanging diplomatic punches.
Just as the Moroccan-Libyan relations have changed, Colonel Al-Qaddafi's vision of many issues has equally changed. He was perhaps reassured that he has become an elusive player who is able to play a role in the Moroccan region, seeing that he heads the suspended Moroccan summit and stands at an equal distance from all sides, let alone his great ambition to include the countries of the coast and Sahara in a practical organization that instills warmth into the Arab-African relations.
Al-Qaddafi had personally experienced the collapse of his dream to host the Moroccan summit three years ago, due to the differences in the positions of Algeria and Morocco over the Sahara issue. He had also seen how its repercussions negatively impacted the establishment of an economic and political bloc that restores the role of the North Africa, to the extent that he announced his divorce and the end of the "Catholic marriage" that binds the capitals of the Arab Maghreb. But he then retracted this estrangement as a result of his traditional mood swings.
Today, the opportunity seems ripe for the Libyan leader to do something beneficial for the region, because he has revealed that the Libyan stand on the Sahara issue will not go backward, and because of the wager on the role of the Maghreb Union in making a breakthrough in the positions, or at least encourage the concerned sides to move forward in direct negotiations brokered by the United Nations.
It is unlikely that any side will ask Al-Qaddafi to carry out such efforts. Thus, it is difficult for any party to reject an initiative with this meaning, because after all, politics is not only measured by what has been done, but also by what has not been done. Whether the mutual exchange of blame between Rabat and Tripoli has entailed a development in this direction or ended as it started, the International Envoy to the Sahara conflict Christopher Ross has opened an outlet to the Maghreb capitals that no longer says: "Do not come closer" to the Sahara issue. The crisis will only be relieved when it worsens!


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