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Dialogue Between Hollande and Rohani Will Go Nowhere
Published in AL HAYAT on 25 - 09 - 2013

Tuesday's meeting between Francois Hollande and his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rohani, at the United Nations, at Iran's request, will not solve Tehran's problem with the west and the world in the short term, or even in the middle term, as long as Iran remains convinced of its right to develop nuclear weapons. This issue is of fundamental importance for the west, because Israel will not compromise on it, even if its ally Barack Obama strongly wants to reach a deal with Iran.
During his meeting with Rohani, Hollande wanted to learn how committed the new president, who speaks the renewed language of moderation, was to carrying out what he said. The Iranian leadership is certainly skilled in maneuvering, as the Iranians are known as rug merchants who are skilled in buying and selling, and able to stall until the buyer's needs rise precipitously. This is what the Iranians are now doing, to try and escape the sanctions that are strangling their economy.
During the meeting between the French and Iranian presidents on Tuesday the course of discussions began and perhaps it will continue with a meeting between the Iranians and the Americans. However, this is not expected to achieve any real results, as long as the Iranian nuclear issue concerns Israel. As for other topics of concern to Paris, namely Iran's position on Syria and the transitional phase there, Tehran will not, until further notice, abandon the regime, even if it is aware that Bashar Assad in the end will not continue in power, especially since Iran is fighting alongside Assad, via the Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah, its agent in Lebanon and Syria. Can anyone believe that Hollande asked Iran to agree to a transitional phase in Syria and neutralize Assad, and that Rohani will carry this out?
Meanwhile, Hollande believes that it is in the interest of Hezbollah to pull out of the fighting in Syria and return to the domestic Lebanese political game, and take part in the formation of the government and stop blocking its formation. But what will Iran receive in return? Paris says that there is no linkage between the Iranian nuclear issue and the country's stance on Syria and Hezbollah. In reality, there is a link, due to Iran's request to leave behind international sanctions, which have greatly affected its oil exports and revenues, and its economy. Rohani and the flexibility that was spoken of by the Supreme Leader, Khamenei, will not change Iran's relationship with the west and the international community, if Iran retains its stance on developing nuclear weapons. With the presence of Rohani, the difference is that he allows the opportunity for maneuver and giving the impression of flexibility on this issue, and giving additional time to the continuing bid to obtain nuclear weapons. Iran will not leave Pakistan as the only Muslim nuclear power.
The discussions in New York between Rohani and Hollande and between Rohani and William Haig, and also the meetings with his foreign minister, Zarif, who is experienced with American leaders, will not change much, if Iran does not abandon its drive to develop nuclear weapons, because this is what led to the sanctions.
However, the Khamenei regime does not work for the interest of its people, but rather to carry on a negative policy in the region, from Syria to Lebanon, Iraq and the Gulf countries. Things will not change between Iran and France, Britain and the United States, as long as Iran continues to seek to obtain nuclear weapons.


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