In Tuesday's edition of Le Monde, the famous political cartoonist Plantu summed up the moderation of Hasan Rohani, the new Iranian president, by drawing Bashar Assad holding an axe and killing his people. In the drawing, Rohani tells Bashar, "Please, not so hard," while a Rohani supporter says to a woman, "Look, there's a moderate." The cartoon expresses the direction of Iranian policy upon Rohani's election and the formation of his government. Ever since he declared his candidacy for president, Rohani has presented himself as an open-minded reformist who wants to see Iran leave behind its economic tribulations, brought on by sanctions because it is developing nuclear weapons. For years, the international community and the G6, which are negotiating with Iran, have asked Tehran to halt its program to develop nuclear weapons, and for years, these countries have run up against Iran's lack of responsiveness to this demand. Rohani does not give the impression that he wants to stop this program. On the contrary, he affirms Iran's right to a nuclear program. As for support for Syria and the Assad regime, Rohani affirmed his adherence to this policy. Iran continues to provide support in the form of weapons, oil and money, while Hezbollah forces support the Assad regime. Iran's economy is certainly on the brink of collapse because of the sanctions. Iran's oil production has dropped considerably, with the large reduction in purchases of Iranian oil by countries such as China, Japan, India and others, because of the attendant financial complications because of the sanctions. China has adopted a barter system involving some goods to pay for Iranian oil. The European Union slapped a ban on importing Iranian oil around a year ago, and that country's economic conditions are deteriorating. However, despite this, the Iranian regime continues to provide financial and military support to Assad, Hezbollah, and a number of politicians in Lebanon. This will certainly not stop with the coming of Rohani. His priority will be trying to convince the west, and especially the United States, that Iran under his presidency has changed, so that the sanctions on his country are dropped. However, how will this be possible, if it continues with its nuclear program and its support for Assad and Hezbollah? Iranians are known for their ability to maneuver, and in western circles they have been called "rug merchants," meaning that they are skilled in making offers, setting conditions, and maneuvering around them. Rohani can buy time if he opens negotiations with the Obama administration, which would welcome such a development; Obama has said as much on more than one occasion. However, Iran under Khamenei will not change. Just as President Mohammad Khatami failed, seeing true openness from Rohani will be difficult and complicated. Obama is a weak American president on the world stage, but American congressmen will not let him lift sanctions on Iran if that country continues to develop nuclear weapons, because they fear for Israel. It will be extremely difficult for Rohani to achieve his mission of improving Iran's economy if Iran does not change its policy. For example, he could have given a positive signal about Lebanon and encouraged its agent there, Hezbollah, to agree to the formation of a neutral government, without setting impossible conditions, because the country is in danger. But after President Michel Suleiman visited Iran to congratulate Rohani on his election, it seems that any positive move in this direction has yet to take place. Meanwhile, Hezbollah's participation in the fighting in Syria has increased. How can Rohani turn a new page if he does not take the initiative with regional and foreign policy moves that indicate the beginning of profound change, and do not constitute a mere verbal, media maneuver? He needs to show that Iran is determined to fix its economic situation, which is the result of sanctions.
