The United States was late in intervening to end the Syrian crisis, as Secretary of State John Kerry said this week. This tardiness reflects the reality of the situation and the weakness of President Barack Obama's foreign policy, which has focused on military withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan without drafting an effective policy on the post-withdrawal phase in the region. The Syrian crisis and its developments have shown that the Obama administration has no influence in the face of Russia in the Middle East; or, it has surrendered this region to Russia because America's interests are not threatened by a disintegrating Syria or a destabilized Lebanon. Obama is concerned more with Iran and its role in the region, particularly in relation to Israel, than with Syria and the fate of President Bashar Assad and the thousands of dead who are falling every day due to the repression of Syria's army. In view of the American withdrawal from this conflict, it has become quasi-certain that the Geneva 2 conference will submit to the conditions of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will not accept Assad's departure or the transfer of his powers; during Geneva 1, he accepted Assad's remaining in power provided that his powers be transferred. Russian involvement today in Syria is much stronger in the balance of power on the ground with the absence of western countries, whose presence has been limited to statements and warnings with no follow-up. Meanwhile, Russia is providing Syria with weapons, rockets, planes and training, and supports Syrian military forces in their war against the Syrian people. The west, in contrast, is moving from verbal red lines to a debate over the international conference whose results are known beforehand. France's foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, reiterates that there are great difficulties facing Geneva 2, and that there should be an attempt to arrive at a political solution to the conflict. Geneva 1 left the issue of Assad's departure vague, after a US-Russian agreement reached between Hillary Clinton and Sergei Lavrov on the eve of the meeting. Al-Hayat followed this meeting alongside their French counterpart, who left the hall saying at the time that the meeting did not produce what the Syrian opposition wanted, but was the most that could have been agreed to, which was acceptable. What will change now with Geneva 2? The US president's stance has fallen behind that of his secretary of state, while the European Union taking decisions to lift an embargo on arms to Syria; this was followed by the French minister saying that lifting the embargo did not mean that weapons would be provided to the opposition. It is a case of one step forward, and ten steps back. Then, diplomats explained that the EU document talked about lifting the embargo, but with no supplying of weapons at this time, i.e. this could become a reality at a later stage. But which later stage, as Syria increasingly falls apart? Accord between the US and Russia is more important for Obama than the situation in Syria; thus, he is bargaining over Assad's remaining in power until the presidential elections of 2014, while Russia tries to find a formula in 2014 that could allow Assad to save face. Meanwhile, the regime continues to kill the people and the ranks of the fighters are growing; those who want to tear Syria apart are entering Syrian territory in ever greater numbers. Hezbollah is continuing to fight alongside the regime and offering Shiites from Lebanon to resist the Syrian people, who are in revolt against their oppressive regime, as the party tries to bring the Syrian war to Lebanon. This is taking place as the west looks on; Israel is comfortable with seeing the destruction of the region, because its enemies – Hezbollah and Iran – are busy fighting in Syria. Geneva 2 is bound to engage in deal-making at the expense of the Syrian people. Putin realizes the importance of US-Russian relations for Obama, and that this matter is more important than the interest in Syria by an American president who is weak on the international stage; Syria is not a strategic matter for him. Also, Putin has taken the lack of European foreign policy unity into his calculations. Europe often criticizes the division of the Syrian opposition, while inter-European disputes often cripple these countries' actions. The outcome of Geneva 2 is known already and Putin's Russia is certainly recovering its influence in the region, thanks to the weakness and retreats in Obama's Middle East policies.
