How do you view the current situation in Syria? - It is extremely dangerous and I can say that it has reached a point of no return. What does this mean in practice? - The chemical massacre was a critical juncture. But the regime denies any involvement in it? - If this is true, then it has made a terrible mistake. It should have acted quickly. It should have declared a ceasefire and asked the inspectors to go immediately to the scene, and allow in the international media. It is clear that it has not done so. But Barack Obama is finding it difficult to get authorization from Congress for military action? - If the strike does not take place, and this is something I believe is unlikely, the alternative would be heavily arming the Free Syrian Army, not just to prevent the regime from achieving victories, but also to speed up the process of its exhaustion. The regime's problem does not lie only in the military strike. Its problem is that the regime that is accused of using chemical weapons becomes unacceptable as a party to any settlement until its decision-makers pay the price; furthermore, it becomes a burden on its allies. What would you do if you were in the place of Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem? - I do not want to be in his place, first, because he is my friend, and second, because he is in an unenviable situation. I hope his visits and contacts do not end up being similar to those undertaken by Tariq Aziz, that is to say, that he would be carrying unconvincing proposals or proposals that are not commensurate with the size of the threat and therefore cannot be sold. Suppose you are in his place, what would you carry to Moscow? - I would act on the basis that time is running out. I would give Vladimir Putin real cards in the hope that he is able to help the regime survive the strike and emerge out of its predicament. For example, I would convey to him the approval to put the Syrian chemical arsenal under the supervision of United Nations experts, with guarantees and participation from Russia. I would leave the door open to insinuations that Syria is willing to dismantle its chemical arsenal. And to bring about a shock that would divide the Western coalition, I would give him the right to inform the Westerners that the Syrian regime is ready to declare an immediate ceasefire and move quickly to Geneva 2, on the basis of the initial interpretation of the Geneva Communiqué, which would establish a transitional government with full powers. Before giving Putin these cards, Damascus must ensure it has the approval of Tehran. Why would Damascus offer today what it previously rejected, as long as the talk now is about a limited strike? - Because the charge of using chemical weapons itself is graver than the strike, and because after the inspectors' report, the front calling for punishing the Syrian regime will broaden. Damascus must read quietly into European and Arab attitudes. After the report, the crisis will cause severe embarrassment to the Russians and Iranians. The Syrian regime should not be reassured a lot. You know the Russians and Iranians well; will they fight for the Syrian regime? - Russia has made it clear that it will not. I believe that Iran will also not risk everything despite the importance of the Syrian regime for it. What is the mistake committed by Iran in recent years? - It missed an opportunity to negotiate with Obama before fire broke out in Syria. I heard from the Americans that they were eager to negotiate with Iran and back then, Iran had cards in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The group led by the Revolutionary Guards obstructed this opportunity and the Supreme Leader endorsed its position. Iran has fewer cards today. The Syrian regime is in a bad situation, and Hezbollah is not in the best of its days. Is it not better for the Syrian regime to contain the strike and then come out declaring victory? - Syria is not Hezbollah or Hamas. It is a state and not an organization. Furthermore, the strike is part of a broader strategy against the regime. If no strike were carried out, the other part of the strategy would be activated. Anyone who believes that what comes after the chemical attack will be the same as what stood before is mistaken. Why do you believe that the charge is graver than the strike? - Look back at the fate of the regimes that had been accused of the same. Do you think that Moallem is carrying in his briefcase what you believe is necessary? - I doubt it. For this reason, I told you I do not envy him for the situation he is in.
