The expressions chosen by Iran's new president, Sheikh Hasan Rohani, in his inaugural speech Sunday, and a news conference on Tuesday, were very precise. Rohani, a seasoned diplomat described as rational, chose his terms carefully in presenting himself to Iranians and the rest of the world. He spoke of "moving away from delusion" and "balancing between principles and reality," and described the moderate approach he would be bringing to the presidency as "rationally moving away from extremism." The main factor that has brought together bazaar merchants, reformists, clergymen from Qom, and some of the Revolutionary Guard involves the popular national desire to escape the poor social situation that Iranian society has experienced thanks to the economic policies of the two governments of the former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, over the last eight years. An alliance of all of these forces is based on the wager that Rohani can achieve openness at home and abroad, which will save Iran from the repercussions of a 70 percent drop in the value of the Rial, and from the rise in employment, which has reached a frightening level of almost 30 percent, in a country rich in gas and oil resources. Moreover, there is the drop-off in oil exports, even though a number of countries, such as from the BRICS group and elsewhere, have not adhered to sanctions. This drop has reached the lowest levels in the history of the strong Islamic Republic, representing only 40 percent of Iran's petroleum production capacity. If it was understandable for Rohani to reject "ignoring" Iran's right to produce nuclear power, and in its negotiations over its nuclear program, the main reason for the sanctions, then it was natural for him to refuse the "radicalism" of Ahmadinejad, who was supported most of the time by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and the Revolutionary Guard, the strongest military institution and the one that dominates the political system. The policy of attack that was led by the former president and the country's decision-making centers went as far as expecting the collapse of the United States and the west. There was a heavy reliance on the country's ability to undertake military and technological development as a way of exercising influence regionally and internationally, through soft power before all else. It is easy for Rohani to announce that his country, after taking office, will leave behind the bluster of Ahmadinjad, who went as far as to expect even an ending to the rise of China, while being derisive of Moscow's power, at a strategic level. The man relied on phantom power and religious beliefs that some Iranians quickly considered a type of political charlatanism. Moving power in Iran from Ahmadinejad's unrealistic situation is the easiest thing to do; and if this is the case, Rohani's challenge is to translate the innuendos and expressions he used in presenting his future program into a tangible reality, one that changes the state's terrible economic conditions. State leaders used to predict a change in the world and defy the Great Powers with Tehran's readiness to reach an understanding over how it would "participate in ruling the world." This was after the earlier policy drained the treasury of revenue, as $800 billion was spent over eight years. A large portion of it went to developing Iran's nuclear capability, and proxy wars, intervention in Iraq, Yemen, Gulf countries, Palestine, Central Asia and Afghanistan; the money also went to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and to support for President Bashar Assad (it is said that the scope of assistance to Assad has reached $7 billion since the outbreak of the uprising of the Syrian people). Ahmadinejad turned the economy into a rentier one in some aspects, bartered oil with China and India for agricultural and other goods, and for gold with Turkey, while the price of gold has dropped. Ahmadinejad, the Supreme Leader, and the Revolutionary Guard all shared responsibility for the damage this policy brought. Realism dictates that Rohani not sever ties quickly and suddenly with past policies, although if the difficulties are examined closely, all of these items become priorities. This is in order to limit any retreat on the nuclear issue or in expanding regional influence. The supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guard will not allow any type of coup. Even though the Iranian president did not mention Assad's name when he adhered to ongoing policies on Syria, observers saw this as an interesting difference between Rohani and his predecessor. There are no changes expected when it comes to Tehran's support for the Syrian regime, whose survival is considered to be of fundamental importance. Most likely, the matter will be dealt with pragmatically, and with the balance of power on the ground in Syria kept in mind, in parallel to a setting of priorities: Will these involve reducing the losses incurred by sanctions, by getting some of them lifted via negotiations on the nuclear issue, and sufficing with improving relations with Gulf neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia, and not the Levant; or, will there be a comprehensive deal, both regional and international, covering the nuclear issue and Iran's regional role?
