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Make-believe talks
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 10 - 03 - 2013

It'S a moot point when Russia says there is “absolutely" no chance of Moscow telling Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to stand down. According to the Russians, Al-Assad has no intention of resigning in any case and is, if anything, digging in.
Al-Assad says he is willing to talk to rebels but his provisos - refusing to consider stepping down, and only if the rebels lay down their weapons, and that his regime will talk only to the opposition, not with terrorists - quickly dashed hopes of movement on the regional and international stage to find a political solution for the Syrian crisis.
The head of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces could do no better than Al-Assad when he agreed to dialogue with regime representatives to negotiate the departure of Al-Assad, a condition the president will never agree to. Indeed, Al-Assad dismisses the idea that the fighting is linked at all to his continued role as president.
The opposition thus asserts that the doors to a political solution have been almost bolted shut because the regime continues to destroy the country which is at the center of the conflicts of interest of international powers. Events on the ground in Syria indicate that both the regime and armed opposition continue to depend on violence in order to achieve a military victory, even though there are no signs the West will supply the opposition with weapons anytime soon, fearing they could fall into the hands of Islamist extremists fighting in the rebel ranks.
So as the two sides continue to set fictional conditions that will never be met, Syria burns. The UN estimates that about 70,000 people have died since the uprising against Al-Assad began two years ago, about one million Syrians have now fled abroad, and some 2.5 million have been forced from their homes inside the country. Recently, the medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres said Syria's healthcare system had been wrecked by the conflict.
One party that seems to have made up its mind concerning which side to take is the Arab League. By deciding to let member nations, should they choose, arm Syrian rebels fighting Al-Assad, and inviting the opposition to take the League seat formerly occupied by Damascus, the Arab League has abandoned any neutral stand in favor of throwing its weight behind the opposition when it had previously stressed that Syria's political opposition and rebels should be supported only by humanitarian and diplomatic means during the civil war.
It is Russia's position, however, that is of the utmost importance to Syria. Russian reliance on the Syrian regime's hopes of settling the conflict through force has made a political solution difficult, but Russia is not ready to accept Al-Assad leaving office. Meanwhile, US hesitation to assist the opposition has opened the door to extremists. Both powers are now relying on a policy of attrition, with Moscow wanting to exhaust the opposition and the jihadists, and Washington seeking to exhaust the regime and the jihadists.
Other than agreeing on the issue of the jihadists, disputes between Russia and the US remain significant regarding Al-Assad's fate, the future of the regime and opposition, the Iranian role, and the price Russia is demanding for ending its support of the Syrian regime. As a result, Syria has become a bargaining chip in bilateral relations between the US and Russia and a battlefield for a proxy war.


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