In power for more than 30 years, Field Marshall Ali Abdallah Saleh, Yemen's veteran President, is battling for his political life. He has ruled the north since 1978, and the whole country since 1990, but the problems now assailing him on all sides are the worst he has ever had to deal with. Like other Arab autocrats, such as President Husni Mubarak of Egypt, in power since 1981, and Muammar al-Qadhafi, the ‘Guide' of Libya's 1969 revolution, Yemen's President runs a country which, in theory, has a multi-party system. In fact, his word is law – but a law which is now being violently contested in several parts of the country. Many of the problems he faces have roots in the key events of Yemen's often violent past – in particular, the overthrow of the theocratic Zaidi Imamate by a republican coup in 1962, and the union in 1990 of North Yemen, ruled by President Ali Abdallah Saleh's People's Conference Party, with South Yemen, then ruled by the Socialist Party. The union has not been altogether successful. Disasters soon followed its formation, notably the expulsion in 1990 of close to a million Yemeni workers from Saudi Arabia, when Yemen backed Saddam Hussein in his occupation of Kuwait. This serious blow to what was already a very poor country brought widespread misery. In 1994, the South tried to break away with a war of secession. But the war ended, after much bloodshed, with the North's victory and the occupation on 7 July of the South's capital city of Aden. Many smouldering resentments were thus created, that are now bursting into flame. One might say that history has caught up with the embattled Field Marshall. The South is once again clamouring to secede from the union and establish its own independent state, under the leadership of Ali Salem al-Beid, a former president of the southern region. Heading the pressure for secession is the so-called Peaceful Southern Mobilization Movement, which is clearly not as peaceful as its name suggests. Indeed, the south appears to be arming itself in preparation for a new confrontation. This summer has seen a spate of violent demonstrations against the government in Sanaa – and, in response, a violent crack-down by the authorities. An enemy of the central government who is at least as dangerous is Abd al-Malik al-Huthi, leader of a rebel movement in the north of the country, which has been battling the government on and off since 2004. Abd al-Malik's relative, Hussein al-Huthi, the first leader of the movement, was killed in the early months of the rebellion. President Ali Abdallah Saleh has vowed to crush the rebels, accusing the Huthis of wanting to destroy the Republic and restore the Zaidi Imamate. This month, he sent his army on a punitive expedition against the northern rebels – operation Scorched Earth –which, according to Aboudou Karimou Adjibade, UNICEF representative in Yemen, has led to the flight, in great distress, of more than 100,000 people, many of them children. The UNHCR in Geneva says that, in the rebel stronghold of Saada – capital of Yemen's northernmost province on the Saudi border – 35,000 people have fled their homes in the past two weeks alone. The UN World Food Program airlifted 40 tons of high-energy biscuits to Yemen last week to feed the refugees. But access to them is difficult because of the fighting. Government troops, backed by aircraft and artillery, have tried to open the roads to Saada, which the rebels had managed to block. But the rebels still control the mountains overlooking the town. This is the worst outbreak of violence in Yemen since the 1994 war of secession. Casualties are said to be very great. Although the Huthis are Zaidis -- a branch of Shi‘a Islam -- it is not clear whether they really aspire to restore the Imamate or are simply rebelling against what they consider unfair treatment and economic discrimination by Sanaa. They are certainly demanding a degree of autonomy. In any event, the conflict is threatening to draw in outside powers. Yemen's Information Minister Ahmad al-Lawzi has indirectly accused Iran of supporting the Huthi rebels, while the Yemeni army has claimed to have captured Iranian-made weapons – including machine-guns, short-range rockets and ammunition. Saudi Arabia is concerned that the fighting could provide Iran with an opportunity to extend its influence to its borders. Tehran, meanwhile – always concerned for the safety of Shia communities -- has called for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. These uprisings in the north and south have caught the President and his government at a difficult moment. Oil production at about 320,000 barrels daily is dwindling. The fall in oil prices has hit the country hard. A population growth rate of well over 3 per cent – the highest in the Middle East --is expected to boost the population from 18 million at present to 35 million in 2029, exacerbating the many social and economic problems. A perennial Yemeni problem is the production of qat, a drug to which many Yemenis are addicted. It is the country's primary cash crop, occupying an estimated 145,000 hectares of land, up from 80,000 hectares a decade ago. It is a major source of tax revenue, but also a source of great corruption, involving some of the highest officials as well as many farmers. It also contributes to Yemen's grave water shortage. If this were not enough, Yemen appears to have attracted Al-Qaeda cells, including the one responsible for the bombing of USS Cole in the port of Aden in October 2000, which killed 17 U.S. sailors. Many suspected Al-Qaeda operatives were rounded up and jailed, but in February 2006, 23 of them – including those believed responsible for the bombing of the USS Cole – managed to escape by tunnelling out of the prison to a nearby mosque. Among those who escaped was Nasir al-Wahayshi, 33, a former secretary of Osama bin Laden, who is thought to be the leader of al-Qaeda in Yemen. Reports suggest that cells in Yemen and Saudi Arabia have united to form al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, raising the alarm of counter-terrorist agencies in the United States and elsewhere, which fear that Yemen may become a terrorist safe haven. Yemen may need the mediation of neighbouring countries – including the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia and even Iran, to help it resolve its internal conflicts. Above all, it urgently needs help for health, education, economic development and job creation. USAID is this year providing Yemen with the paltry sum of $24million, in scandalous contrast to the billions being wasted by the United States on unwinnable and unnecessary wars. end
