Tuesday's meeting between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian President Vladimir Putin could lead to a change in the management of the Syrian crisis by the international community, which up till now has been unable to act to truly help the Syrian uprising and achieve a true political transition in Syria, with the departure of Bashar Assad. It is certainly true that Barack Obama does not want to intervene militarily in Syria. This is clear, especially since Obama has laid down “red lines" for the Syrian regime without following through on them, with his comments lacking any true meaning. As long as the political solution for the war in Syria between the brutal regime and the rebels remains unlikely, the killing and the massacres will continue; there will be more terror, and the world will continue to look on. But an American-Russian agreement could change things, if the US gives Russia what Putin wants. The Russian president needs a guarantee that there will be no Islamist-jihadist regime in Syria after Assad. Putin is afraid of the spread of jihadist Islam in the republics of southern Russia in the Caucasus. Moreover, Putin (and this might be a priority) wants a guarantee that none of the three western permanent Security Council members will intervene in Russia's internal affairs or offer assistance to the likely opposition to Putin. The Russian president is enamored of power, as he showed when he played around with democracy as he traded posts with his prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev. Putin never left power; even when he served as prime minister, he was the one calling the shots. Putin is determined to stay in power and he wants no opposition demanding his ouster later on; he is also showing his public that he is holding out against the US on the Syria issue. In his discussions with Putin, Kerry will try to convince his interlocutor of the need to cooperate with the US in discussing a new regime in Syria, for which the two countries will serve as political "godfather." These talks will be resumed when Putin and Obama meet on the sidelines of the G8 summit in Dublin next month. If the two heads of state agree on the need for a political transition in Syria, then Russia will be able to serve as a place of exile for Assad and his family. But if Putin maintains his current, intransigent stance, supportive of Syria's president, along with Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah, then Russia's international isolation will not be in its interest, whether in terms of its economy, or geostrategic considerations. In addition, if the situation in Syria remains as it is, jihadist and terrorist groups will be encouraged to expand their influence in the country, thanks to a regime that is using heavy weapons and missiles to kill its people, while failing to act when Israel attacks it. The danger that a regional war will erupt is high. Although Israel has said, via former army officials, that it does not want a war with Syria, it always searches out the fragile country in the region, namely Lebanon. Iran's decision to prompt Hezbollah to engage in wide-scale participation in the fighting in Syria, to defend the Syria regime, might once again drag Lebanon into being the victim of Hezbollah's policies, and into a war pitting Iran and Hezbollah against the Jewish state. This is because Israel is not keen on entering a war with a Syrian regime, which has always been suitable for it. The priority should be for the Americans and the Russians to agree on the need for a political solution without Assad, in order to stop the killing. Can Obama convince Putin that it is in his interest to wager on a new regime in Syria? This will become apparent in the US-Russian talks, which began in Moscow on Tuesday and will resume in Dublin next month. However, in the interim, there will be a steady level of growth in the number of casualties, Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, and the level of destruction in Syria, as Kerry and Obama's talks with Putin continue to be the focus of attention.
