Ever since Saudi Monarch King Abdullah Bin Abdul-Aziz called on the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council states during the last Riyadh-Gulf summit to move from the stage of cooperation to that of union, the Council's member states have been imposing a media blackout on their positions, while the GCC secretariat has been upholding silence! The committees that were formed based on the decision of the leaders met around three times, but seem to have failed to accomplish anything other than elude the press after they could not make any progress due to the obvious bureaucracy in the Gulf hallways. Moreover, some GCC states feared the adoption of such a major decision – although they welcomed it – in the presence of two countries that publically encouraged it in addition to Saudi Arabia which was behind the initiative, i.e. Qatar and Bahrain, both of which are pushing towards the formation of a Gulf confederacy. The points that were agreed on in regard to unity have not yet seen the light although years have gone by since their ratification, except for issues related to security and military work which is enhancing cooperation and the exchange of information. On the other hand, the question of the custom fees is still facing problems and difficulties, while that of the unified Gulf currency is faltering, being postponed, and was left by Muscat and Abu Dhabi. For its part, the Sultanate of Oman does not wish to join the union, while the United Arab Emirates wants to but is reluctant, and Kuwait is leading the decision back to the National Assembly and the country's constitution. The Gulf regimes are facing numerous challenges, difficulties and events, requiring their openness in order to overcome them. But despite that, the governments' interaction with their populations is still slow. There is no doubt that the “union" initiative revived the dreams of the Gulf populations, even though no one asked their opinion, as they are aware of the fact that it is a future necessity, a strategic option and a path towards a better tomorrow. Many have thus said that such a project would generate strength and unity to face the problems, difficulties and challenges confronting rich states with much in common. Next December, the Kingdom of Bahrain – which has been witnessing internal tensions for the last two years – will host the 33rd Gulf summit at the level of the leaders. This might be the first summit held in light of an unstable security situation in some GCC states, at the head of which are Bahrain and Kuwait. The report issued by the independent fact-finding committee headed by Basiouni in Bahrain, assured in some of its sections that there were arbitrary arrests and ousting targeting employees and students against the backdrop of their participation in demonstrations, adding that the law was breached at the level of the way some arrests were carried out and the way the arrestees were treated. There were hopes that the situation would be mended, but Bahrain recently adopted an unsuccessful and inhumane decision to withdraw the nationalities of 30 oppositionists, in a step that will further increase popular anger and tensions. Moreover, the situation in Kuwait is still tense and the disputes are proceeding. Recently, the gap widened between the Kuwaiti government and opposition, and tens of thousands of people took to the streets in a peaceful way to demand the annulment of the decree to amend the electoral law. However, the security bodies confronted them in a violent way, leading to the escalation of the crisis, the boycotting of the elections and the rise of the ceiling of the opposition's demands in response to the government's reaction. Clearly, the tensions will be sustained until a consensual national mechanism is reached to dissipate the dispute and eliminate the reasons behind the tensions between the opposition and the government. In addition, the situation in the Sultanate of Oman and the Emirates is not any better. For its part, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is facing numerous domestic and external challenges, the most prominent of which being the existence of a young generation constituting around 60% of the country's population, with clear aspirations and public demands to see the introduction of reforms, freedoms and a move forward. I believe that the situation in the Gulf states is becoming increasingly complicated in light of the fast-moving internal and regional transformations, while the idleness affecting some of these countries – without resolving the domestic issues as a main priority – is accumulating problems and will lead them to the brink of an explosion and decline! What is certain is that the solutions are only difficult to those who want the carriage to move without horses, i.e. those who want to render the solutions difficult and miss the opportunity at hand. The greatest challenge facing the Gulf states does not only reside in the threats, foreign interferences and regional security, but also in the immunization of the domestic arena, cooperation with the popular calls and demands, the hastening of political reform and the building of strong state institutions capable of dealing with the changes based on practical timetables, through the recognition of people's rights and the activation of popular participation. This is a strategic necessity to ensure official and popular complementarity, in light of the increasing regional polarization and the mounting popular frustration, far away from stalling and blaming this stalling on the threats and challenges. The people are mature and conscious and have memorized the hymn “our Gulf is one and our fate is one" 33 years ago! [email protected] twitter | @JameelTheyabi
