The Arab Spring has hit a wall in Syria. The wave of uprisings toppled the regime of Tunisia in 21 days, Egypt in 18 days and Libya in 8 months, while in Yemen, it precipitated limited change, with half of the regime gone and the other half surviving. However, the revolution in Syria has hit a high and thick wall. After 18 months of trying, the fighting between government troops and the Syrian opposition is no longer about the future of the country, or whether Bashar al-Assad or Abdulbaset Sieda will prevail, but rather over the future of the region, and whether it would be Iran and its allies the Gulf countries and the West that will triumph. There will be no quick military settlement in Syria, and all claims to the contrary are wishful thinking or daydreaming. In a television interview, the Syrian president claimed that he will triumph, but that he needs time to win a battle that is as regional and international as it is Syrian, and that his regime is making progress. Meanwhile, the opposition meets and decides on a plan for the “Day After" or the “Post-Assad" phase, when the military battle is at a stalemate to use the language of the military, with the Syrian people being the victim of both sides. The Syrian president said that his troops can obliterate entire areas, but that they are keen on preserving lives of citizens and properties. Yet, what we saw in reality is that for each armed rebel killed by the pro-government troops, about ten civilians were also killed at least, while buildings and entire neighborhoods were razed to the ground. The opposition is divided, and the disputes within it are as sharp as the dispute with the regime. I have always maintained this, and the recent resignation of Ms. Basma Kodmani from the Syrian National Council and the reasons she adduced for her move confirms what we all know – even if some deny it or try to obscure it. There most certainly is a patriotic opposition that had risen up against the regime for legitimate reasons. However, there also are terrorists of the worst kind, and criminal gangs such as those that tried to control a street in Aleppo, and established a checkpoint to try to stop and rob Syrians there. While government forces have indeed committed well-documented atrocities, the opposition is not innocent at all. There are reports by international organizations, such as Human Rights Watch, which spoke about kidnappings, torture and executions carried out by gangs affiliated with the opposition. These human rights groups also detailed the crimes of the regime in a later report. In the meantime, Iran has proposed a plan to resolve the Syrian crisis, which suits no one except the regime and Iran. while Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi has in turn put forward a solution sponsored by Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran. But in reality, we need reconciliation among these countries to begin with, before they can help Syria resolve its problems. In truth, the Egyptian president's criticism of the Syrian regime during the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement eliminates him as a possible mediator, after he spoke as a leader in the Muslim Brotherhood rather than revealing his stance as the president of Egypt. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's initiative was also a failed one. He said that Iran was willing to work on a solution, provided that the arming of the opposition gangs is stopped. Yet, Khamenei failed to also declare Iran's willingness to stop arming the Syrian regime against its opponents. In other words, the Syrian regime is continuing the daily killings, and the Syrian opposition is not better. The countries that want a solution are asking for one that suits their interests, rather than one that saves Syrian lives. Perhaps the Syrian government is attempting to export its problems to neighboring countries, but if it indeed did, then it has failed in Lebanon, where its ally Hezbollah faces immense internal challenges that have caused it to lose control of the street. In Jordan, meanwhile, the regime remains strong, but its problem lies with the growing number of Syrian refugees, in a country with extremely limited resources. There are nearly half a million Syrians who have been displaced within their country, and another half a million in neighboring countries, including Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey. The Syrian president said in the interview that establishing buffer zones is impractical and impossible. In other words, he neither shows mercy nor allows God's mercy to reach you, as they say. On the short term, the wall facing the Syrian revolution will remain in place. To be sure, the supporters of the regime and the opposition respectively do not have enough strength to triumph over the other side. Meanwhile, I cannot claim to have the ability to propose a solution that no one else has thought of before. Instead, I condemn all sides, and ask the merciful Lord to have mercy on the Syrian people, who deserve better. [email protected]
