What do I say about Revolutionary Egypt? A President who loses the Sinai, the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan, and yet five million people march in his funeral, and a President who wins in his part of the war, loses nothing, and yet he is sentenced to life in prison. I say nothing and I just move on. Today and tomorrow, the Egyptians will elect their first president in the Second Republic. While I personally prefer General Ahmed Shafik to win, I expect that Mohamed Morsi will be the one who will emerge victorious from the race, and I accept what the Egyptians will accept for themselves. While the two candidates disagree on everything, they agree on what I believe is the most important issue, namely Israel. Indeed, both men want to "reevaluate" the peace treaty with Israel. I want to say to them that the Treaty of 1979 has been dead for years now, and all the winner in the presidential race has to do is bury it. To be sure, the Treaty, in the part concerning Palestine and the Palestinian people, has never been implemented, but rather the opposite has happened. For instance, the Treaty provides for transitional arrangements in the West Bank and Gaza for no more than five years. Well, it has been 34 years now, and Israel occupies most of the West Bank where it is building settlements, and all of Jerusalem, while imposing a Nazi-like blockade on the Gaza Strip. My priorities are not necessarily identical to those of the Egyptian citizens who find their livelihoods and the future of their children at risk. For this reason, I prefer General Ahmed Shafik at the helm, because he knows the difference between what is important, what is most important, and what is not at all important in this period, for example the issue of the child custody age. The Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi is well-educated, but lacks political culture. He is therefore not qualified to reverse the decline in the economy, and usher in a period of prosperity that I heard some MB leaders claim would start in four to five years. In the meantime, what does the MB have to offer to the people of Egypt? I do not think the people will wait, and instead I predict that if the economy stays in the gutter, then million-strong demonstrations will ensue, perhaps even culminating in a military coup. I started with the economy, because it is the single most important issue in Egypt. I hope I am wrong when I say that the MB does not have the necessary cadres that are able to mend the economy, and will not be able to put an end to the gasoline and gas price crisis, or sometimes gasoline and gas shortage. Indeed, the economy is an issue that entails more than just distributing sugar, rice and oil to the voters. Conversely, Mohamed Morsi is an ‘esteban', or ‘a substitute' in non-Egyptian lingo. Khairat Shater would therefore have been a better candidate, and Essam el-Erian would have been better than both, if the Freedom and Justice Party had nominated him instead. As I examine the failure of the majority of the MB in Parliament during the probationary period in the past few months, I remember that they had promised to be represented by a minority, and said that they would not nominate a member of the group for the presidency, before they nominated not one, but two members. They also collaborated with and opposed the military council, in either case as much as it suited their interests, and not those of the country. This behavior has confirmed an old accusation that the Egyptian chapter of the MB has two discourses, one meant for the people and another for its members. I do not believe that the MB wants an Iranian or Afghani style regime in Egypt, because the Egyptians would never accept that. However, their loyalty is to their supreme leader, which resembles Vilayat-e Faqih [clerical rule], and Mohamed Morsi has sworn an oath of loyalty to the Supreme Leader Dr. Mohammed Badi, as did other senior members of the group. Here, I want to go back to the first decade of this century, when the government of Ahmed Nazif, which had brought together many businessmen, achieved an economic miracle by Egyptian standards. The economy thus overcame the crisis of 2004, with GDP growing eight percent or so year after year. Even in 2008, the year that saw the global financial crisis, GDP grew by 4.5 percent, while the average growth over the whole decade was six percent. The above figures come from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and are conclusive and irrefutable. However, corruption has marred these figures, and thus the benefits did not trickle down to the average citizens, and remained in the hands of a corrupt few at the top of the power pyramid. It was therefore the duty of the revolution and the new administration led by the Muslim Brotherhood to eliminate corruption and protect the gains of the economy; yet, the revolution ruined both. General Ahmed Shafik struck a chord among the citizens by focusing on security, because without it, the economy would never recover, and tourism and foreign investments would never return, except if the rule of law is restored. Furthermore, Shafik is more qualified than the MB to deal and cooperate with the capable Arab countries, and to gain the confidence of the outside world. I dare say that Egypt needs Ahmed Shafik at this stage, so I hope he will win. [email protected]
