Scenario 1: Amr Moussa or Ahmed Shafiq and Muhammad Mursi receive the biggest share of the vote in the presidential election on next Wednesday and Thursday, and the candidate of the Muslim brotherhood wins in the run-off on the 14th of next month. Scenario 2: The MB hogs the Parliament, the Shura Council, and the posts of President and Prime Minister, while the economic situation deteriorates day after day. Scenario 3: Million-strong protests are held against the government, to demand job opportunities and the basic needs of the citizens. Scenario 4: A military coup is staged, overthrowing the elected government; the constitution and civil liberties are suspended. I feel that we are on the verge of a repetition of the scenario of 1952 in Egypt, when the Muslim Brotherhood thought they had seized power, and their supreme leader said that if they rule they would never forfeit power. Gamal Abdel Nasser cracked down on them brutally, just like King Farouk did before him and Anwar Sadat and Husni Mubarak after him. While I do not blame the MB for what happened to them under every successive President – having both suffered and caused injustice-, I find today that the Egyptian economy is suffering. I fear that the economy may not recover quickly enough to prevent the people from rising up against their elected representatives. I also find that all that the new Parliament has done so far, or what it is about to do, remains short of what is required to save the country. Post-revolution Egypt has almost destroyed in one year or so the country's foreign currency reserves, and yet there are some in Parliament opposing a loan from the World Bank because they believe it is usury. I read all of Cairo's papers in four consecutive days, and I found draft-laws of every kind and variety. However, they all fail to meet the country's needs, as I understand such needs from reading the reports of the World Bank and the IMF. Indeed, after they expected in the past decade that Egypt would be one of the Tigers of the Middle East, their reports now warn of further decline for the Egyptian economy. I was thinking about the possibilities of a military coup in Egypt when I was in London, but I preferred to wait until I visited Cairo and heard what people there had to say. I say, having met both incumbent and former government officials, journalists, intellectuals and friends, that I have asked everyone the following: Will there be a military coup? I did not hear a single answer that discounted this possibility, and some even talked about two or three months from now, when my question was about a possible coup in two years or more. The above does not mean that the respondents support a military coup. Rather, they do not discount one given the turbulent political situation. Some even openly said that they do not want military rule, but that logic says that the possibility for one indeed exists. I began my visit to Cairo by calling Amr Moussa. I had a long meeting with him two months earlier, and I told him on the phone that I do not insist on meeting him, so that I do not deprive him of the chance to shake hands with voters and kiss babies, as we see the candidates in the West do. However, Moussa insisted that we discuss the situation together during my visit. I also met with Dr. Zahi Hawas, Osama Haikal and friends at noon, then with the dear friend Faiza Abul-Naga, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, for dinner, along with Munir Fakhri Abdel-Nour, the Minister of Tourism, as well as friends and colleagues. I plan to return to what I heard from them in the coming days. When General Omar Suleiman was still the Minister of Intelligence, I had many meetings with him. However, I saw him this time out of office, and heard from him important details, including some astounding ones, and I shall return to these in detail in the coming days. For one thing, Suleiman is a reliable witness of the era of Husni Mubarak, and I have full confidence in his information. Marshall Ahmed Shafik, meanwhile, has many achievements in the ministry that can reassure the voters with regard to his abilities. I saw him in a hotel in the October 6 City, after he participated in a televised interview that ended near midnight. We sat and talked, while sharing a cheese sandwich and some crisps. At that late hour, there were many young men and women supporters of his, who interrupted us repeatedly to have their pictures taken with him. Since I was at his side in every picture, I managed to get some measure of fame and political influence. I then returned to Cairo with the candidate Shafik in his car, and he took me to my hotel even though he was exhausted, so we got there around three am. Shafik was preparing for a trip to Aswan and cities in the countryside, and he invited me to go with him. Of course, I would never visit Cairo and not meet the dear friend Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei and his wife Mrs. Aida. I have always found that I have a lot in common with the former head of the IAEA and Nobel laureate, possibly because both of us stayed long abroad. I intend to return to what I heard in Cairo in more detail in the coming days, and all I want to say today is congratulations to the Muslim Brotherhood for winning the Parliament, the Shura council and their presidencies, but I prefer a liberal President for Egypt. [email protected]
