Is Syria headed toward civil war? It is a frightening question, or it frightens me, and my answer is no. Then I feel that I am letting my emotions taking over, and I set aside the question of what I want or do not want, and review what others are saying. Perhaps a day does not go by without our hearing a warning about civil war in Syria, as if what has befallen the Syrian people until now is not enough. The United Nations Human Rights Committee says the incidents are horrific enough as to merit no impunity. The United States secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, warned in Copenhagen last week that Russia rejects any decisive measures against Syrian President Bashar Assad, which could cause a civil war that the Russian diplomats say they want to avoid. The secretary general of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, earlier said that the massacre of children in the village of Houla could launch a civil war, and urged the Syrian government to adhere to the conditions of the UN-sponsored peace plan. He warned that the international observers' mission was not just to watch the slaughter of civilians. They were all followed by Kofi Annan, who warned about the possibility of civil war in Syria. As I write, I have before me clippings from American and British newspapers about Syria, and they also warn about a collapse of the situation, with headlines such as: "Syria slides towards civil war," or "Why war is marching on the road to Damascus." The above is an appraisal of the dangerous situation that indicates a huge explosion is coming, and there is also the incitement. The US Republican candidate for president, Mitt Romney, accuses President Barack Obama of "paralysis" on his policy on Syria; he proposes that the US and partner nations should "arm the opposition in Syria so they can defend themselves." I argue that Romney is suggesting the creation of the conditions for civil war in Syria, if this war does not take place for purely Syrian reasons. At least Romney is not proposing air strikes on Syria, like Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, and Senator Joe Lieberman, an independent, although he represents Israel in the US Senate. If the above is not enough, there is the editorial board at the Washington Post, which is Likudnik although the paper itself is liberal; I read the headline "What the US should do about Syria." Against the backdrop of the warning by the US ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, of the rising possibility of an explosion in the Syrian situation, dragging the region along with it, the editorial board suggests what it claims are steps to avoid the ambassador's scenario, and to bring down the regime of Bashar Assad. In short, the editorial proposes safe zones on the borders with Turkey and inside Syria, so that the opposition can act against the regime. It offers a second scenario, which is for the US to arm the opposition and provide it with intelligence information. Will this topple the regime? I see it as increasing the likelihood of civil war. I think that some foreign officials speak with good intentions, and if I am wrong, it is because of a lack of knowledge of the details, and not on purpose. Others warn of a civil war and try to make it happen, putting out suggestions that guarantee a rise in military confrontations in Syria, taking it to the brink of civil war. Meanwhile, it does not appear that Russia (and with it China) will change their stance of opposing effective measures against Syria, going so far as to use their veto in the Security Council. Syria is Russia's last bastion of influence in the eastern Mediterranean; Moscow believes that the west tricked it in the war on Libya, and will not let this happen again. The stance of President Vladimir Putin is bolstered by the Russian Orthodox Church's opposition to any foreign intervention to topple the regime. There was recently an exhibition on the history of Christianity in the cathedral near the Kremlin, and the Russian Church has announced that is afraid about the future of the sect in Syria if the regime falls and a fundamentalist Islamic regime arises, as in other Arab countries after the spring of the revolution. The Syrians alone are able to prevent a civil war in their country and they will be helping themselves if they do not believe their "friends" in America and Europe, and if they remove the thorn with their own hands, because the one who put it there cannot.
