The Houla massacre represents the point of no return in the armed conflict between the Syrian regime and the opposition. The peace plan which was advanced by the Arab League has failed. The peace plan proposed by Kofi Annan backed by the UN is on its way to failure. But perhaps a third or fourth peace plan was going to be in the offing had not the massacre of Houla occurred, altering the rules of engagement. And although the UN Security Council unanimously condemned the massacre without directly condemning Syria, every delegate outside the Security Council hall blamed the regime for the massacre. The United States had called for regime change in Syria at the outset, before changing course when Ayman al-Zawahiri urged the jihadists to go to Syria, and since last December, we have been seeing suicide bombs in Syria bearing the hallmarks of al-Qaeda. However, Washington is now back to talking about regime change, specifically through a solution that replicates the Yemeni scenario, with the President stepping down without being prosecuted. Russia supported the regime in Damascus against all its opponents, standing on its side against all the Arab countries that sided with the opposition. On the eve of leaving the president's office, Dmitry Medvedev showed some flexibility, perhaps as he recognized that the decision will be in the hands of his predecessor and successor Vladimir Putin. Today, we hear that Russia is willing to cooperate with the United States with respect to removing the regime of Bashar al-Assad in return for safeguarding its interests in Syria – the last toehold Russia has east of the Mediterranean. The Arab countries, specifically Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and even Libya, spoke extensively about arming and financing the Syrian opposition. However, actions on the grounds fell short of statements – until the Houla massacre took place, and forced these countries to put more effort into supporting the opposition. We hope that we will see a better position from these countries then, when the Arab League Council convenes in Qatar on the second of June. Even Iran has begun to act as if expecting the end of the Assad regime. For this reason, it is seeking to bolster its Lebanese liaisons, offering assistance and agreements. However, the Iranian ambassador Ghazanfar Abadi has been complaining because the Lebanese authorities have not welcomed Iran's overtures. Since March 2011, the regime in Damascus has been focusing on the security-based approach, effectively excluding all other solutions, as we saw with the fate of the Arab and international peace plans. Yet for 15 months now, the security-based solution has failed, and the crisis has grown more difficult and intractable. Nevertheless, the regime insists on staying the course. On the eve of the outbreak of the Syrian uprising, President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview with a U.S. outlet that what had happened in Tunisia and Egypt would not happen in Syria, because the situation there ‘is different'. But I wish Syria was like Tunisia and Egypt, as the number of those killed during uprisings there did not exceed the number of those who are now being killed in Syria between one day and the next. Now, there are 35 dead children, and perhaps fifty, who died from gunshots or who were slaughtered. This time, I saw that the outside world, be it the Arab world or Europe, did not turn a blind eye, because there is a public opinion putting pressure on its leaders to do more than give statements. There are only two possibilities ahead: Either the regime goes, with international agreement along the lines of the Yemeni solution, or a devastating civil war ensues, a war that no one knows how it will end. Frankly, I see no solution over the long run where Dr. Bashar al-Assad can remain president. Perhaps the worst thing about the Syrian crisis is that its worst manifestations could have been avoided, if the President and his spouse had visited Daraa following the killings there, and if the government had paid compensations to the families of the victims and punished those responsible. But the President did not do so, and wasted in a matter of weeks a popularity that he had built in ten years. He is the first and last person responsible, if not the only one, for what has happened, because he is the head of the state and the master of its decision. Thousands of victims have perished so far, and others will soon follow. There is no quick solution to the Syrian crisis, and when the history of the Syrian uprising is be written, the Houla massacre shall represent the point of no return for the regime and its henchmen. [email protected]
