Despite the extreme flexibility of the Lebanese political system and its ability to soak up and adjust to the developments, it seems that the winds of the Arab spring have started to reach it. Since independence in 1943, this system was able to overcome numerous obstacles, renew itself and produce a political class which never drifted away from its insistence on its sectarian roots. It even managed to implicate the secular and leftist movements and parties in its conflicts. Exiting the crises and overcoming the obstacles was not always peaceful or easy, while the rise and fall at the level of the acuteness of sectarian divisions did not occur within the “democratic" framework of the Lebanese pluralistic system. As to the competing groups' use of weapons, whether to demand the modification of their representational shares or in the context of their attempts to maintain the existing ones, it is a practice implicitly agreed upon under various pretexts, starting with the claim that “there is a piece of weaponry in each Lebanese home" and reaching the necessity of sustaining the weapons of the resistance to deter any Israeli attack. Since the emergence of its sectarian formula in the forties of the 19th century, Lebanon has been mirroring the regional and international balances. Since that time, it has continued to intercept, interact with and apply all the external developments on its domestic conflicts. Hence, it was impossible for Lebanon to stay away from the storms moving throughout the region, as well as from the collapse of the prevailing Arab regime since the 1950s. However, the Lebanese system has its own way of assimilating and digesting the external transformations, or translating them into its sectarian language. Consequently, the prominent Islamic characteristic seen in the countries that witnessed revolutions moved to Lebanon in the form of the Sunnis' disgruntlement over the hegemony practiced by Hezbollah and its allies, via a government that reached power through a coup against the results of the 2009 parliamentary elections. The clashes in Tripoli, the assassination of a cleric and his bodyguard in Akkar and the incidents of Tarik al-Jdideh in Beirut, all signal that “something major" is occurring in the ranks of the Sunni sect, and is closely linked to the Syrian revolution firstly, and to all the changes witnessed in the region since the toppling of Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali secondly. The general climate among the Lebanese Sunnis reveals a tendency to take to the streets, in order to reject what they perceive as being a belittlement of their rights and acquired roles. For their part, the other sects did not take too long to pick up and interpret the signal. Apart from the excessively emotional reactions of Michel Aoun (who is marginal at the level of the region), we can see that a side with deep regional connections, i.e. Hezbollah, rushed to absorb the series of setbacks which affected the status of its foreign allies, through appeasement and leniency to a certain extent. This was conveyed by the statements and speeches of its leaders following the kidnapping of the Lebanese pilgrims near Aleppo, in an operation that is condemned at all levels. This changing of tone is not to be taken lightly, as it reveals the high level of anticipation with which the party's command is following the developments, after exposing the emptiness of its claims regarding the calm situation in Syria and the seriousness of its instigation against the Syrian revolution, vis-à-vis its supporters firstly. In light of the weak representation of the secular and the liberals, and of the divisions affecting the unions and civil society, the precursors of the Arab spring in Lebanon are being headed by those who believe they have lost in the last round of the conflict between the infighting groups. As to the democratic side demanding justice in the Arab revolutions, it will only reach Lebanon via the gate of the sects and their perception of the values. Indeed, this is a country in which gains and losses are measured based upon the standards of the sects, their sensitivities and moods.
