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The Neutral Sides in the “Syrian Balkans”
Published in AL HAYAT on 15 - 03 - 2012

Daraa after Edlib, Edlib after Homs… Aleppo is restless and Damascus is not looking….
The great massacre has been ongoing for twelve months and in Syria, the heart of pan-Arabism, and the price of the spring in one year has exceeded 8500 victims. Since its beginning, the year of the massacres has toppled the purpose behind the renewal of the question regarding the morality of politics, considering it is allowing tyranny to continue wagering on the pretext of the international conflicts and the illusion of survival.
International-Arab Envoy Kofi Annan received the response of those in Syria who have the ability to choose the political solution option, which is the only one capable of rekindling the vitality of the obstructed Security Council. But the question is awaiting clarifications. Annan is waiting but the killing machine is proceeding. Moscow is in a state of anticipation, while between one massacre and the other, and the scenes of the mutilated corpses of the children, the Kremlin is rethinking its calculations and scolding the Syrian command for disregarding its advice at the right time.
This conscience awakening does not exclude China, which is now in favor of the Arab populations' yearning for democracy. It thus recognized the inability of whichever power to deter these winds, but when they emanate from the Syrians, Beijing encourages reasonable demands solely – without clarifying to the Syrians or to the other Arabs the reasonable reforms that could be accepted or with which coexistence would be possible in a country reigned by massacres.
Annan is waiting for Damascus to clarify its response to his proposals that were inspired by the five points of the Arab-Russian consensus over a political solution. As to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who finally spoke and scolded the Syrian regime without affecting its sovereignty, he honestly recognized for the first time that what Moscow wanted did not exceed the level of the regime's renewal under the current command. But what he did not tackle - i.e. the anticipation of the results of Annan's mission and his elimination of the possibility of renewal - might take long weeks if Annan's mission were to fall in the trap of ambiguities and contradictory interpretation of the five points, or even Damascus' wish to exclude any Arab reference for the solution.
Between one massacre and another, everyone is waiting. However, the killing machine is proceeding as it celebrates its first year with candles that are nothing but the crushed corpses of the children with the fangs of insanity.
The Karm el-Zeitoun population has left and gone towards death. Who is telling the truth? Those who survive will maintain their optimism for a while, and the slaughter will force them to hold on to the illusion. As to the dead, they do not reconcile with those who killed them.
Despite of everything, no one could prevent the regime from condemning the Israeli attack on Gaza “although the Arabs are preoccupied with the conspiracy against Syria!” The problem does not reside in the identity of the weapon between the attack in Gaza and the “conspiracy” in Syria, but also the disciplining whose price must be paid by the Syrians. According to the command, they are paying that price submissively and while reassured, and deterring the bullets in the funerals as well.
As to the “gangs'” talk, it renders the Syrians' epic in the Arab spring the epitome of the plot in the drama of heroism and lies, courage and leading Syria towards hell, the bravery of the voice and the cowardice of the bullets, as well as the rallying of the street during the funerals of dozens of Hamza al-Khatibs and the security's quivering over the possibility that the oppression opportunity might be the last, even if it were to last for quite some time.
The Security Council might witness an imminent session with a humanitarian American Russian consensus, in case Annan is convinced about the clarity of the Syrian response to his proposals. But once again, we must wonder about the opposition's ability to engage in dialogue with the regime, knowing it became weak after the massacres forced it to limit its hit and run operations, once the authority's forces regained control over most of Homs and Edlib and the revival of the divisions between the oppositionists abroad whenever the Arabs wish them to unite.
Another possibility requires the questioning of the timing of Moscow's announcement of its disappointment vis-à-vis the refusal of the regime in Damascus to listen to its advice, before Annan's announcement of the outcome of his mission. Assuming that Russia used this disappointment to get a quick response from the Syrian command, the criterion remains the convergence of Damascus' interpretation of this response and its assessment by the former United Nations secretary general. The criterion is also the pinpointing of the independent and neutral international power that will monitor the ceasefire in the cities of horror and destruction.
Based on Lavrov's statements, one can speculate that the neutral sides are the Indonesians, Malaysians and Bengals, as long as the heart of pan-Arabism has abandoned the Arabs and as long as the Kremlin does not acquit the West from the instigation of the opposition. As to the decision-makers in the Syrian command, they believe that any course produced within the Security Council could mark the beginning of the Russians' lifting of their hands off the regime. Is it just a coincidence that Lavrov's disappointment coincided with the trip of CIA Chief David Petraeus to Turkey and his meeting with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at a time when Pentagon is drawing the maps of the Syrian military positions while benefitting from NATO's experience with the Serbs in the Balkans?
The Russians have always been concerned about a sectarian explosion in the region that would hasten any foreign military intervention in Syria emulating the Libyan experience. And from Homs, to Edlib and Daraa among other cities which reminded the world about the horrors of the racial cleansing in the Balkan wars, the question continues to surround the goal behind the massacres and the mass displacement prior to a dialogue whose nature, angels and demons are unknown to all.


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