The field indicators in Syria, the political tensions in the region and the increasing possibility of seeing the discontinuation of communication among the sides involved in the Syrian crisis, all prompt the belief that this country is heading towards the worst scenario, in light of the availability of all its key components. On the domestic field level, the killing machine is still claiming the lives of dozens of civilians, in a clear expression of the official insistence on finishing the battle against the people who are growing more persistent to get rid of that authority. On the domestic political level, the sides of the opposition are on the brink of sharing the conviction that this regime can no longer secure an internal settlement, even if it wants to. And in light of the mounting military dissent – in parallel to the armed confrontations and the foreign contacts of the authority's opponents – the opposition's front is expanding and gaining momentum in a way restoring a minimum level of balance with the killing machine. This will make it harder for the regime to settle the situation, which will consequently push it to resort to further oppression and force. On the regional political level following the Arab League's decision, the pressures on the Syrian regime will definitely increase. However, the understanding of these pressures by the ruling team in Damascus and its allies – particularly in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon – disregarded the political meaning related to the practices of the regime and turned toward a sectarian interpretation. This is especially true seeing how the Arab voting over the League's decision almost completely fits this divergence. In the meantime, the League's decisions related to the protection of the civilians and the possible call for international assistance in that – since it cannot be secured on the Arab level – might open the appetites for the staging of foreign international intervention on the ground. Hence, the scenarios are oscillating between a civil war which will carry repercussions throughout the region on sectarian and denominational bases, or a foreign field intervention that would set Syria and the entire region on fire. The way things are going and in light of the fast-developing clashes and tensions, these scenarios seem to be the most likely, while the Syrian people will definitely be the first victims. In order to avoid these scenarios, the responsibility firstly falls on the Syrian regime which – since the eruption of the protests – has been pushing toward this tense situation that is fueling the worst possibilities. Indeed, the regime is wagering on a regional earthquake to prevent its fall, but also on its allies from Iran to Iraq and Lebanon to corroborate its ability to persist and the difficult implementation of any confrontation targeting it. This is what Minister Walid al-Muallem tried to explain at length during his press conference two days ago. These claims might constitute elements of strength in a regional conflict, but they are an element of weakness on the domestic level. Indeed, they cannot serve any internal settlement in light of the official insistence on the fact that a foreign “conspiracy” is targeting rejectionism in order to elude change, and are consequently unable to affect the internal developments, unless to make them worse. A lot of blood has so far been shed in Syria. It is mostly the blood of civilians demonstrating peacefully to change the nature of the rule. And unless the authority recognizes that truth, the passageways leading toward the solution will remain locked. Clearly, those issuing the orders to kill and upholding the conspiracy theory are incapable of engaging in any settlement, because they will be the ones to pay for it regardless of its nature. On the other hand, especially after it agreed over some sort of joint method, the opposition seems to be responsible for encouraging those in power and whose hands were not soiled with blood to engage in the change process, but also for providing guarantees and reassurances regarding the fact that no new authority will be established at the expense of regional, ethnic or sectarian groups. Certainly, the chances of a peaceful scenario are increasing as the conviction widens in the ranks of sides within the authority that the current situation cannot continue and that the required concessions must be offered to the people. In the meantime, the conviction is also widening within the opposition regarding the necessity to secure the participation of all the popular components in that change.
