The most frequently asked question among people in Egypt until recently was: will the parliamentary elections really be held, or is there a trick there – with the military wasting time, absorbing the anger and waiting for the opportunity to seize power, as it will find pretexts to cancel the elections and remain in the seat of power? Yet the road map set by the Military Council is being followed, and Egyptians are today truly on the verge of the elections (while admitting to the slow procedures and the excessive length of the transitional period). The question has thus turned into: will the elections pass without massacres and blood, and will their three stages be completed, or will violence prevail and prevent their completion? The justifications for such a question are well known: societal violence erupting across Egypt ever since the Revolution for different reasons, for which most of the responsibility goes to the former regime – which made use of baltaga (organized bullying) in politics, planted its baltagiya (paid thugs) everywhere, spread poverty and ignorance across the country. Other reasons are connected to security unrest, the weakness or the shortcomings of the police, the slowness of the military and its fears of clashing with the masses, in addition to the feeling which has come to prevail that the transitional period offers opportunities to obtain rights forcefully and quickly, before things calm down, state institutions regain their stability and the routine returns to deprive those entitled to certain rights of obtaining them. As for the most prominent reason, it is people's feeling that those who have truly benefited from the Revolution are the members of the media and political elite, the white collars and the faces that always appear on satellite television – from among those who raise harsh slogans in public squares, demand the rights of the martyrs, attack the Sharaf government and the Military Council; those who lament that the Revolution has not achieved its goals during the day, then in the evening reserve their seats with businessmen from among the remnants of the National Democratic Party (NDP) who own television network, to appear in shows for which they are paid! And with them are major figures of the political parties and movements who have ridden the wave of the Revolution since the beginning, and have shown a certain extent of agreement with the necessity of overthrowing the regime, then, after Mubarak stepped down, struggled and raced to take his place. Ordinary Egyptian citizens do not hide their anger at the fact that the members of the media and political elite have made no effort to suppress civil strife, alleviate tensions, prevent clashes or reduce violence, but have in fact always incited and supported this in order to gain more television air time or obtain political gains. Over the past week, societal violence has erupted in numerous provinces, killing has seemed easier than insults and abuse, and security forces have found themselves powerless to deter lawbreakers, bowing to allow the passage of storms of violence between families in Upper Egypt or in the coastal provinces. And such events have contributed to reformulating the question about the elections: after all that has happened, is there still trust that the elections will end well? Personally, I have examined the polling system, and the truth is that it ensures the smooth movement of citizens in front of and inside poll centers, as well as avoiding overcrowding or clashes. All voters will be informed a week before voting day of the location they should head to in order to vote. Yet some of the other reasons for violence still stand, even if all measures are smooth and the voting process has been made easier, knowing that violence at every election held under Mubarak was systematic. And what always aroused sarcasm were those advertisements on state television that urged Egyptians to exercise their right to vote. When they would believe them, they would head to polling centers and find themselves prevented from entering or subjected to beatings if they were not voting for the candidates of the formerly ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). Indeed, the entire state apparatus would be mobilized in support of NDP candidates, deceiving the will of voters and practicing all forms of fraud. Violence would thus occur either as the result of anger possessing those who competed against NDP candidates or on the part of the NDP's own balatgiya as a means of deterring competitors. The feeling prevails today that the state apparatus does not intend nor is able to forge the elections (even if there are reservations on the performance of the electoral commission), but have the reasons for violence disappeared? Of course not, but it will not be systematic nor managed directly by the state apparatus. Rather, it will arise from the motivations of the competitors themselves, on the background of the general feeling that the strong can impose their will even if it disagrees with the law, in addition to political opportunism that has been practiced since the eruption of the Revolution, seizing opportunities, pointing out mistakes and making false claims in order to influence people or to gain sympathy and support. Yes, violence will occur that cannot be stopped, unless the will of all parties to the political game were to unite over the necessity for the country to cross over from the phase of elections to broader horizons of growth, in the interest of Egypt and of all Egyptians… not to achieve the interests of the white collar class.
