In Syria, corpses are posing as other people, while in Yemen, corpses are being snatched. These are two scenes from two tragedies in the Arab Spring whose facts converge over the quasi impossibility of reaching the last chapter. In the meantime, the more martyrs are falling, the more change is becoming difficult. Yemen's tribes fell in the trap of the regime, thus pumping in its veins what allowed it to extend the conflict with the rebels, even if at the expense of the death of dozens of children or the destruction of Sana'a. The elements of civil war are complete, and the chances of the Gulf initiative are dissipating in favor of killing and anarchy. As for the tragedy of the Syrians who are caught between the jaws of a costly confrontation without a prospect and the division of the opposition through accusations of betrayal to whoever tries to reproduce the Libyan scenario, it remains linked to a wager on whoever will despair and give up first between the street's anger and the regime's machine. One may certainly wonder about the retaliation to which the authority will resort to punish the Turkish neighbor for extending its hand to the “Syrian National Council” and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's quarter of a step seen in his meeting with a delegation from the Council, maybe to compensate for the retreat of the Turkish threats to the Syrian regime. What is certain in any case is that the rebels in Daraa, Homs, Deir ez-Zor and elsewhere are not hoping for a Turkish invasion to topple the regime, just as they are not delusional about any Arab rise to protect the civilians from the armored vehicles, tanks and snipers of the “thugs.” And while the deterrence suggested by the West via the sanctions stick – as long as it does not have a “magical” pressure tool – will extend the tragedy of the Syrians in an unequal confrontation on the street, that same West is not misleading the regime in Damascus. It is rather reassuring that foreign military intervention will not be an option at whichever stage. As for the Russian veto which is ready to repeat its success by removing the Security Council's teeth, it is the same one thwarting the possible birth of an Arab decision that will strip the Syrian regime of its legitimacy. And as long as the international consensus is non-existent, France's call upon the Arab League to adopt “courageous decisions” will remain closer to a wish and a call for help facilitating the nibbling of the Russian veto. The League had hoped that the international consensus would spare it from the test of the “painful” decisions, i.e. the non-fleeing of the responsibility in the face of the massacre and the non-surrender to the temptation of transferring the mission to the West, even if by use of force. Now, following the so-called final warning and the Arab two-week deadline offered to the Syrian regime, it is likely – in light of the tragedy and the violence of the regime's machine – to see the end of the Arab option which Damascus is eager to ridicule. Indeed, Damascus never concealed its conviction that the “conspiracy” oscillated between the strings of the Security Council and the Arab League. Consequently, if the two tracks are obstructed, the killing will grow fiercer, at a time when the National Council abroad is unable to protect even one street or one march from the regime's wrath, tyranny and oppression. It is the same first square in which the authority besieged the uprising, but also besieged itself after it destroyed the credibility of any promise for reform and dialogue. What is odd is what the League missed in its adoption of an initiative to host dialogue between the regime and all the branches of the opposition, as the authority is convinced it will exit the “crisis” stronger than before and will consequently not find any justification for a dialogue granting the opponents legitimacy, even in terms of the minimum level of demands. Some among the Syrians considered that the Arab initiative was stillborn. It tried to avoid the repetition of the Libyan scenario, but also tried to test the idea of introducing the dead legitimacy of a security regime into intensive care. Is this the option wanted by the Syrians following the fall of around 3,400 martyrs? Between despair and the attempts to enforce despair to extinguish the uprising, the volcano of divisions in the ranks of the Syrian military men is in eruption. And the more the killing campaigns are intensifying, the more the signs of civil war are increasing and the more the authority is drowning in the mud of collective retaliation. No one wants civil war. The Russians, the West, the Arabs and the Turks are saying it publicly, but its facets are “slipping through” in broad daylight. So far, there is no magical solution to stop the besieging of all the Syrians with the weapon of comprehensive suicide.
