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Victory and the Price
Published in AL HAYAT on 10 - 06 - 2009

The election results spared the Lebanese opposition a tough test that could have been brought about by its victory. It was difficult to convince the world that Hezbollah is not the backbone of the government regardless of how much the Aounist cover is extended. It was difficult for Hezbollah to spare the country some costs that could be induced by international and Arab stances that fear to see it seize the reins of decision. It was not easy for Hezbollah to be the government's effective cover and to maintain at the same time its role as a resistance whose commitments sometimes go beyond the borders of the Lebanese scene. However, all this does not negate the party's weight and overwhelming representation of its sect as well as the danger of isolating it and the impossibility of achieving stability against it or in its absence. Hezbollah needs to read the message of the ballot boxes, which reminds of the limits of power in the Lebanese structure.
The results also spared General Aoun's movement a tough test. His movement is more of a broad protest than a ruling force or a partner in power. Its balance is more a collection of criticisms and condemnations than one of visions and solutions. Aoun excels at being in the opposition more than he is convincing in power. He is more successful in politics than in the military world.
I heard those who were reading the results and saying many things. The General can no longer say that the Presidential Palace was stolen from him; that he is the leader of the Christians; that the Patriarch and the President of the Republic are intruders and troublemakers; that he played with the corruption card until it disintegrated and that he wouldn't dare when in power to open wide the doors of this mine. He can no longer say that he lost when he volunteered to fight the martyrs and the tears of their relatives, waging the elections battle to bring down the daughter, brother, or son of a martyr. I heard this talk, which might be far from the truth. But this does not deny the fact that the General is good at addressing a part of the people; that his reduced popularity does not imply its fading; that the victors must invite him to dialogue instead of marginalizing his movement.
The March 14 forces are entitled to celebrate their victory. The opposition can no longer consider it an illusionary majority for sure. It went to the ballot boxes and came back with a clear delegation. Saad Hariri returned with a wider and stronger leadership than his father's. The discourse of moderation that characterized his recent appearances reflected the tough tests and trainings he has gone through in recent years, especially that the Lebanese laboratory is a stern teacher.
This image does not cancel out the fact that the March 14 forces have a flaw in their Shiite representation, just as the opposition has a flaw in its Sunni representation. Stability requires a settlement to mend this flaw through a creative solution that is hard to refuse. The way to this can be a governmental formula that can empower the President of the Republic to deal with the bottlenecks, as need the majority and the opposition alike.
Victory is a tough test that entails difficult decisions. The future cannot stay hostage to the past, even if it was rife with pain. The winner must reassure the loser. The loser must acknowledge the rules of the game. The March 14 forces must release themselves from the burden of the International Tribunal now that the file has exited Lebanon. They must also admit that good or natural relations with Syria are a prerequisite for stability, and that the respect of geographic realities on one side of the border must be met with the other side's respect of Lebanon's structure and realities.
Saad Hariri emerged from the elections as an undisputed leader of his community and a great Lebanese pole. He emerged with enough power to take difficult or painful decisions. Victory has a price. Stability has a price. The presidency of the council of ministers has certain specifications and features. To alleviate the country's woes, he must curb his personal pain. Such conduct ushers him into the club of the wise men after he entered the club of the strong men. The Lebanese laboratory obliges the opposition to take decisions of the same caliber. Any return to messing around with the ingredients would set the laboratory to fire.


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