Almost three years ago, I wrote an article “diagnosing” the “reckless” political mood of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The latter never faltered to make “heroic” statements and brandish aggressive slogans that tickle the emotions of those who ignore facts. His statements, intentions, and practices ended under media spotlight. Today, the Iranians, their neighbors, and others seem to have a clearer picture of Ahmadinejad. In his electoral campaign, the incumbent Iranian president lost important voices at home, especially those of the religious establishment, and became an easy target for his rivals who are now “publicly” accusing him of being a dictator and of implementing rash policies. Conservative candidate Mohsen Rezai even went further when he expressed concern that Iran might meet a fate “similar” to that of the former Soviet Union. The Iranian religious institutions have never witnessed such divisions over supporting presidential candidates. For example, the conservative Tehran Militant Clergy Association (Ruhaniyat) abstained from supporting any candidate even though its president Sheikh Muhammad Rida Mahdavi announced his personal support for Ahmadinejad. For its part, the Qom-based Hawza Theological Seminary did not offer Ahmadinejad unanimous support even though its Secretary General Muhammad Yazdi backed up the Iranian president. With no doubt, Ahmadinejad's popularity is declining with the mounting criticism of his government's performance and the support voiced by the aforementioned religious establishments to candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi at the expense of the current president. As such, Ahmadinejad has failed to gain the support of the religious authorities in Qom amidst divergent opinions over candidates. But Mousavi managed to garner the support of the reformist Society of Combatant Clergy of Tehran (Ruhaniyoun) and the Qom-based Hawza Theological Seminary. In Iran, the electoral fever is heating up as June 12th, the date scheduled for the elections, approaches. Currently led by Ahmadinejad, the Iranian authorities have decided to ban Facebook to “hinder” Mousavi's rise after his supporters managed to harness this website in his electoral campaign, as reported an Iranian news agency close to the reformists. The only means left for Ahmadinejad now is to accuse his rivals of waging a campaign of “lies” against him with their criticisms of his government's economic policies. They exposed the rampant inflation and unemployment rates after Ahmadinejad supported outlawed parties and movements and froze the domestic situation without working to build the people. What most attracted my attention in Mousavi's statements is when he said that Ahmadinejad “shamed the country on the international scene and endangered its status with his reckless policies,” blaming the prevailing tension, turmoil and lack of confidence on Ahmadinejad's policies. Even more, Ahmadinejad created hotspots in Yemen, Palestine, Lebanon, and Iraq which made all his neighbors fearful of his intentions, he who is well-known for his aggressive statements and interference in the affairs of others. In elections, it is permissible for each candidate to expose and criticize his competitors, as well as raise promises and slogans to attract voters and secure victory. Under former reformist President Khatami, Iran built close relations with its neighbors even though the United States placed it back then on the “axis of evil” list. Reformist candidate Mousavi may win. But what will change then? Will he develop new Iranian policies to restore confidence in Iran's relations with its neighbors and the international community? Will he freeze support for outlawed militias and armed movements and stop Iran's interference in the internal affairs of other countries? Will Mousavi put an end to Ahmadinejad's “troubled” policies after he accused him of “implementing a dictatorship that harmed the country and exposed Iranians to insults from the world?” I doubt that this might happen. For the Gulf and counter-Iranian perspectives are laden with suspicion, doubts, and lack of trust. Certainly, the next president, whoever he may be, will be better than Ahmadinejad.
