There is no doubt that the political, economic and security situation currently prevailing over Yemen is confusing and concerning, while the continuation of a status quo without any consensual solutions that would satisfy all the conflicting sides might lead the country toward an unknown fate. Therefore, the Arab Gulf states did not launch the initiative which is rejected by Ali Abdullah Saleh – although he claims to have accepted it – until the expansion of the rift and the closing of the horizon between Saleh on one hand, and the youth and opposition parties on the other. There is a desire by the Gulf states to bridge the widening gap between the sides involved in political action in Yemen through direct dialogue around one table in Riyadh, in order to open the doors that have been blocked for over two months. Therefore, the Gulf states had to present a positive initiative or a series of suggestions that would eliminate the tensions and the turmoil, in light of the continuation of the protests and sit-ins, and the insistence on the toppling of the regime and the departure of President Saleh. The Gulf Cooperation Council states must thus proceed with these efforts until Yemen overcomes the current situation and exits the state of paralysis prevailing over the country, but also to protect the people from the danger of slipping toward tribal war or sectarian strife which will directly or indirectly affect their countries. There is no doubt that the demographics in Yemen are different than in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Syria. But when the security apparatuses confront the demonstrators with killing, oppression and threats, the country immediately enters the unknown. This is exactly what will happen in Sana'a, especially in light of the procrastination exercised by Saleh and his party. The protests on the Yemeni street started the same way they did in the other Arab countries, i.e. by raising the slogans of reform, demanding the improvement of the living conditions and calling for the release of freedoms. However, soon enough, the “spark” was ignited with the lifting of the ceiling of the demands, after the first bullet was shot at the skulls of the protesters and demonstrators were killed. This heralded the unwavering calls for the “toppling of the regime” and the lifting of the slogan demanding the departure of the president and that of “living happy above the ground, or dying beneath it as martyrs.” But how will the situation evolve in Yemen which is already suffering a high level of poverty, a poor economic situation, a tribal demographic structure and the armament of the men, women and children? Certainly, the situation will become disastrous in the event of any confrontations or clashes between the supporters of President Saleh and the opposition parties. Indeed, the country might slip toward tribal war or sectarian strife threatening the “frail” national unity, in the presence of a secessionist movement in the South, an armed rebel movement in the North, tribal retaliations and the infiltration of Al-Qaeda organization which is awaiting the right moment to attack the country and turn it into a bloody swamp as is currently the case in Afghanistan, Somalia and Iraq. This will affect regional security and the countries neighboring Yemen. The Gulf initiative stemmed from Yemen's strategic importance and the fact that it is a brotherly country and the neighbor of the GCC states. It was also prompted by the deteriorating situation, the rise of the turmoil and the prevalence of instability, which will have direct repercussions on Gulf, regional and international security. Therefore, Saleh must realize that the Gulf call is not in favor of one team against the other, and constitutes a brotherly contribution and assistance to the Yemenis to provide a solid ground for solutions that could be agreed on, thus preventing the country from proceeding toward the unknown. What is certain is that President Saleh's continuous reluctance and procrastination at the level of stepping down and peacefully transferring power to ensure the formation of a temporary interim council and a national unity government, under the pretext of “to whom will I surrender power?” – as though Yemeni mothers never gave birth to anyone but him – is a mistake and an old procrastination which will generate dire consequences in the country. This is due to the fact that the prevalence of tribal demographics, the bad economic situation, the spread of arms and the Yemenis' experience in wars and armed disobedience, could lead the country into a dark tunnel and a violent conflict, which will grant Al-Qaeda a great opportunity to work and pave the way before the secessionists and the Houthis to acquire new supporters. This might lead Yemen toward painful options, at which point the “resetting of the counters” will not do any good!
