The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is in the eye of the storm. Like a ship caught in such weather, it is calm, or peaceful, but it is well aware of the threats looming in the horizon. To the south there is Yemen. Its borders with Saudi Arabia are 1700 kilometers long, and its problems are many. Even before the recent Arab uprisings, these problems have often spilled over across the border. And to the north, there is Iraq and behind the Iraqi scene, there is Iran. The situation there has been one of extreme danger since the American occupation, and has worsened even more with the recent protests taking place in all the cities of Iraq. There is also Jordan, which is currently witnessing an ever growing popular opposition movement. To the east, there is Bahrain, 22 miles across the bridge, and a boisterous opposition, including some local and national factions, and others instigated by Iran. And to the west across the Red Sea, Hosni Mubarak was ousted, the most important ally for Saudi Arabia, and much of the future remains uncertain. Even if we assume that Saudi Arabia would remain without a strong local opposition movement - and March 11 shall be a clear measure of this -, the kingdom will not be able to ward off the spillover from its neighbors' problems should they worsen, and should chaos reign or extremist regimes replace the ones currently in place. The collapse of the domestic situation in Yemen will practically mean that there will be an exodus of people fleeing across the border. Meanwhile, the political crisis in Iraq is helping increase Iran's influence day by day. And even though Bahrain may be a small country, developments there have equal implications as those in Yemen or Iraq. In plain language, Saudi Arabia will not accept the collapse of the regime there, and considers the latter's security to be a part of its own security. The bridge, after all, was not built just for the Saudis to spend their weekends in Bahrain. In contrast to the justified concern regarding the storm raging around Saudi Arabia, there are reasons to be reassured when it comes to the domestic situation, most importantly, because King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz is extremely popular. While he is no doubt a very devout man, he is also a reformist by Saudi standards, and some of his decisions have indeed been opposed by several influential fundamentalist groups. Further, the majority of Saudis are conservatives, and the religious establishment exerts a large influence in Saudi Arabia. While the Facebook youths do indeed exist there and are active, the majority (which includes youths too) is conservative, to the extent that when Saudi dissidents fled to London, they were first welcomed and celebrated by the media, until they were discovered to have left their country because they accused the government of not implementing Sharia law as much as it should- as though it could implement it any further. Since Saudi Arabia remains the most important economic power in the region, it possesses the wherewithal to tackle social issues, as evident from the 37 billion dollar benefits package announced by the King last week for the citizens, following his return from his treatment trip abroad. I read that the benefits package is a gift and I read that it is a bribe. Commentary thus is based on the writer's personal stance on Saudi Arabia, not on facts on the ground. Between this and that, we can say that there are numerous and extensive areas for reform in a country where nearly 60 percent of the people are below the age of twenty-five, and with the highest unemployment levels being among young people. Personally, I hope that the reforms, which are certain to be enacted, will include improving women's rights and bolstering their role in Saudi society. In recent decades, Saudi women have proven to be ahead of men in the fields of education and productive work. Equally important here is the need to pay attention to the youths, who are the backbone of the future. We read their demands on their websites, including some that are legitimate and logical, and others that are completely off the wall. Wisdom requires that the government beats everyone to taking measures, and not by having a reaction that may come too late and that may backfire. I hear that Saudi Shiites in the eastern parts also have demands. While I do not deny at all their right to equality with all other citizens, nay call for that with them, I believe that the problem of Arab Shiites, in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and other countries, is with Iran before being with their respective countries. This is because the Arab Shiites are often suspected of owing their allegiance to Iran, even when this is not the case. Today, there is an aggressive regime in Iran that is a source of concern for nearby and faraway nations. While the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad government is facing strong opposition within Iran that it is repressing by armed force, it is behaving in the region as though it were behind the Arab uprisings, or as though it were the one that will benefit from it. It even claims that the victory in Egypt belongs to it, not to the youths of Tahrir Square. Hosni Mubarak was a stubborn opponent of Iran. However, any regime that will succeed him will not be a friend of the Ayatollahs, because Egypt is a country where all Muslims are of the Sunni denomination. Overall, my opinion is that the further away the Arab Shiites are from Iran, the more likely that they will achieve their just demands. Legitimate demands are a right to all citizens, from all religions, ethnicities and colors, and without exception. We have seen them being snatched from the governments which failed to grant them voluntarily, and wise men learn by other men's mistakes. [email protected]
