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Ayoon Wa Azan (The Wars and Crises of Lebanon Are a Cautionary Tale)
Published in AL HAYAT on 22 - 03 - 2011

There are many just demands raised by the protesters in Bahrain (i.e. the Shiites). They could have achieved many of them, had the moderate majority not decided to march behind an extremist minority that raised the slogan of all or nothing, but returned empty-handed, or what fools return with these days.
Frankly, I do not know how al-Wefaq and Sheikh Ali Salman were dragged in by al-Haq and Hassan Mushaima. Al-Wefaq represents the moderate Shiite majority in Bahrain, which is uninfluenced by foreign entities, while al-Haq is a minority, and represents a lethal combination of extremism, ignorance, and suspicious foreign links.
The government of Bahrain had allocated 6.6 billion dollars for public housing, a key demand of the demonstrators, while the GCC pledged ten billion dollars for Bahrain and Oman, an amount sufficient to reinvigorate poor Shiite villages, and create many job opportunities.
But the opposition chose to call for the downfall of the regime. Mushaima said explicitly that this possibility is on the table, and this attracted ignorant youths who do not understand the balance of power in their country and their region, and who managed to squander a golden opportunity to improve their conditions.
I was certain, as I heard the King and the Crown Prince pledge to respond to the demands of the demonstrators that fall within the realm of possibility, that Bahrain was taking strides towards further democracy. And while I was also certain that the opposition would not get all its demands, I thought it very likely that it would achieve enough in this period of time, and would come back and demand more in future occasions.
However, the extremist faction was not right to escalate its demands to the degree of impossibility, until Mushaima ended up in prison as he deserves.
Does anyone believe that the official Bahraini opposition did not know that the other members of the GCC would not allow the regime in Bahrain to be threatened, because this would mean that these countries too would be threatened, and that they will intervene using all means available to them to protect the regime in Bahrain, and subsequently themselves?
Now, there are troops from Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Bahrain, and Kuwaiti warships in its vicinity. Qatar, too, has announced that it would defend Bahrain if conditions warrant it.
Thus, between the choice of achieving some demands and large benefits to improve the living standard of the citizenry, and insisting on getting everything, the Bahraini opposition chose confrontation and lost.
But this loss is not confined to the internal situation in Bahrain. It has also affected all countries in the region. We have thus seen demonstrations in Iraqi cities and Lebanon in solidarity with Bahrain's Shiites, which means adding fuel to the fire of religious strife, and giving Iran the excuse to instill hatred among the individuals of the same people.
The Iranian government announced that it opposes the deployment of Saudi forces in Bahrain and demanded that they be withdrawn. However, Iran's approval or objection means nothing, because the GCC countries are all members in the Peninsula Shield, which is aimed at protecting member states from foreign interference and threats, while the Bahraini government has accused Iran of meddling in its affairs and incitement.
I hope that the political crisis in Bahrain is temporary, and that the moderate Shiite majority will return to the dialogue table. There is no other practical alternative for either the government or the opposition. I also hope that Crown Prince Sheikh Salman bin Hamad will maintain his position on the need to reach agreements through dialogue, not violence.
President Obama had telephoned both King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa of Bahrain to stress the need for maximum restraint regarding demonstrators, and focus on political efforts to meet the legitimate demands of the protesters.
I would say here don't preach to the converted. The Bahraini government indeed wants to negotiate, and some of the demands of the opposition are quite legitimate and feasible. The Saudi government wishes that it could withdraw its troops from Bahrain yesterday, let alone today. Saudi troops entered Bahrain in implementation of Saudi commitments, and the kingdom wants its troops deployed there to remain for the shortest time possible.
More importantly, the Bahrainis must quell sectarian strife before it escalates beyond borders. I heard from the extremist minority that if the spiritual leadership of the Sunnis of Bahrain is Saudi Arabia, then that of the Shiites there is Iran. This is absolutely unacceptable, because the leadership of any people must be within their country, and the wars and crises of Lebanon are but a cautionary tale here.
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