The statements made by Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi have surprised Egypt and many others as well. And although Cairo rushed to deny any efforts on its part to start a war against Addis Ababa due to the dispute over dividing the water of the Nile, finding strange the claims made by Zenawi, and denying as well his accusation against it of offering support to Ethiopian opposition groups, the stance taken by Ethiopia raises many questions over its timing, content and purpose, as well as over who might be inciting it. Zenawi's words coincide with Addis Ababa hosting the summit of East Africa's Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which was intended to discuss the situation in Sudan and Somalia, and which witnessed Ethiopian “mediation” between Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir and his Vice President Salva Kiir Mayardit to resolve the dispute over the referendum and the region of Abyei. Here too a second “warfront” was started against Egypt, which is exerting tremendous effort in this regard and which is concerned with the situation in Sudan much more than is Ethiopia, the Prime Minister of which has been excessive in warning against the return of infighting between the two parts of Sudan. These Ethiopian claims have had many preludes in Addis Ababa. Indeed, Ethiopian newspapers have applied themselves since the beginning of the year to publishing scenarios of an expected war against Egypt, attributed to American and Western researchers. Most of these scenarios aim at justifying the unilateral steps taken by Ethiopia in terms of building dams on the Nile without consulting with the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, and at inciting Ethiopians against Egypt under the pretext that 85 percent of the river's water comes from springs located on their soil and that they have the right to make use of it as they wish, without any consideration for international law and for ratified treaties concerning the division of the river's water. Egypt's Foreign Ministry considered Ethiopia's escalation to be the result of the “frustration” felt by Addis Ababa after having ratified with four other countries a new draft agreement for dividing the water, one which is finding difficulties to be recognized internationally, because it does not include all the countries through which the Nile flows. The Ministry has asserted that Cairo clings to its firm legal and political stance on this issue, and that it follows the path of dialogue and cooperation, one which it has never relinquished or thought of alternatives for. Yet Cairo suspects an Israeli role, as well as a sympathetic US role, in inciting Addis Ababa against Egypt and its role in the region, in both its Arab and African aspects. Egyptian sources say that Tel Aviv has contributed to financing the building of dams in Ethiopia, which appear to be useless for agriculture and aimed only at withholding water and producing some electricity, and that it is exerting pressures aimed at an old goal: demanding that Egypt retract its categorical refusal to supply Israel with part of the Nile's water, or else its share of the water would gradually be decreased, with Ethiopia's cooperation, which would threaten its security, in terms of food as well as politics – something the features of which have begun to appear with the decision by the Egyptian government to decrease the areas reserved for growing rice due to the large quantities of water it requires, and the subsequent fact that the government has had to import quantities of water at high prices in order to provide the needs of local consumption. Egyptian circles also mention evidence of the growing relationship between Israel and Ethiopia, which would represent the background for Addis Ababa's stances. Among such evidence is the decision announced by Tel Aviv this month to assimilate new waves of Ethiopian Jews (Falasha), reaching up to eight thousand people over the next four years, under the pretext of saving them from a deteriorating humanitarian situation at home – this after Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman had chosen Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda (countries of the Nile basin) as stops in his trip to Africa last September, a trip which especially involved proposing water projects.
