French President Nicolas Sarkozy received General Michel Aoun at the Elysses Palace this week as part of a determined move by Paris to think about how to treat the crisis that will erupt upon the issuing of the indictment by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Sarkozy and his team, represented by the secretary general of the Presidency, Claude Gueant, Ambassador Jean-David Levitte, his Middle East adviser, and now the new Gaullist foreign minister, Michele Alliot-Marie, and her diplomatic team, are searching for ideas on how to avoid a deterioration in the security situation in Lebanon. It has become clear to all that there is no exit from the STL. Likewise, the talk about learning the contents of the indictment beforehand, or when it will be issued, is mere speculation and political rhetoric, unconnected with what is being done by the prosecutor, Daniel Bellmare. Bellmare is working professionally and remaining distant from rumors and the verbal wars underway in Lebanon. He is completely aware that when he has definitive evidence for an accusation, he will complete the indictment and send it to a judge, for study and approval, or rejection. There is no escape from the STL. However, France and its president have not been standing idly by, waiting for things to deteriorate in Lebanon before acting. Sarkozy is now talking with everyone in Lebanon, from Aoun to former President Amin Gemayel, Samir Geagea and MP Walid Jumblatt, who has not asked for a meeting but might be invited to one if Sarkozy is determined to complete the listening process, and then act to avoid a catastrophe in Lebanon. France is concerned with Lebanon, especially since it has soldiers participating in the United Nations' peacekeeping force there. Sarkozy constantly reminds all of his Lebanese visitors that preserving the security of French soldiers is a priority for the country. France does not want a second crisis, or see Beirut become another Baghdad. Thus, he is determined to move with leading Arab states that are concerned with Lebanon. Sarkozy has good relations with Saudi Arabia and Syria, and realizes that their bilateral understanding is the basis of stability in Lebanon. However, France can get involved, in parallel and based on an understanding with these two fundamentally-important countries for peace in Lebanon, and prevent a deterioration. This is why Sarkozy's listening to all of the parties in Lebanon might be useful and significant. Certainly, solving the situation in Lebanon is not a miracle. But France, if it retains a balanced relationship with all sides, can play the role of calming things down. But the chief question today is: who is talking with Iran, which has wide influence, whether in Lebanon, Syria or Iraq? Iran's policies and its use of the struggle with the west on Lebanese territory might make France's efforts more difficult, due to the very poor relation between Paris and Tehran, while movement by Iran often pressures Syria. The incident in July in south Lebanon, when French troops were targeted, did not have Syria's approval. However, it took place despite this fact. Iran, despite the poverty and misery of its people, has money to pressure and destroy things, and block any effort at peace. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's trip to south Lebanon was a signal to the world that Iran had the Lebanese card, which it used when it wanted, with the agreement of its strategic ally, Syria. Iran is richer than Syria and has alliances with Lebanon and Iraq. The French efforts will certainly be based to listening to all sides in Lebanon, and acting with France's regional allies and friends could come up against a hard-line Iranian policy that prevents any solution.
