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Ahmadinejad's Rationality
Published in AL HAYAT on 17 - 10 - 2010

More than thirty years later, with the horrific domestic purges that accompanied them at the beginning of the Revolution, and settling the internal struggle for power by killing those who were killed, expelling those who were expelled and exiling those who were exiled, and after a war that lasted 8 years against Iraq under Saddam Hussein, who was “guarding the Eastern gate of the Arab World”, the Islamic Republic of Iran has become a major regional power. It has restored, or nearly restored, its position of Shahenshah (King of Kings) in the region, after turning the latter's politics upside down. Yet it has not yet been able to convince others of this new reality. Before the Revolution, the United States, and with it Iran's other friends and allies, were convinced of the role played by the Shah as if it was destiny. Those who would dare to challenge him would be accused of subversion, of terrorism and of being backward. The Arab forces that opposed him and his role, led by Abdel Nasser, were ostracized by the US and by Europe, and exposed to threats. They were threatened by his alliance with Israel, Turkey and Ethiopia in the region, and with the United States and the West in general. The purpose, for the US and Israel, of the 1967 war was only to topple the challenge to the bases of this alliance.
After the Revolution, the Arabs feared it would be exported to their countries. They thus became divided between those who supported it, considering it to have broken the siege that surrounded them and overthrown the force opposed to their cause in Palestine, and those who opposed it, fearing Khomeini's slogan which called for exporting it. However, neither the war waged by Saddam prevented it from spreading, nor did ratifying peace treaties with Israel remove the threat of the Hebrew State. Moreover, neither the international embargo and sanctions nor the attempts at a revolution against the revolution were able to topple Iran's regime.
The Shah's Iran gained its influence from its military power and its Western alliances, especially with the United States, as well as from its SAVAK security force and its alliance with Israel. As for the Revolution's Iran, it gains its power from filling the vacuum left by the Arabs in their own countries, as well as from their laxity in opposing Israel. The Shah's Iran had official political extensions. As for Khomeini's Iran, its extensions are popular ones, starting from Afghanistan and reaching Palestine and Lebanon, through Iraq. It is a factor of “revolutionary drive” and of fragmentation.
President Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon and the way he was received, at the official and at the popular level, confirms that fact. What he put forward in his speeches and in his talks confirms that the old situation has changed. It is over for the Shah and the attempts by the United States to restore Iran to its previous state are but in vain, and will bring only destruction to the whole region. Turkey too has changed: the military no longer controls its policies, and its view of Israel has changed. The old alliance is finished, never to return. The Hebrew State has no choice left but to try to go through the middle of the Arab World, after its alliance with its surrounding has been broken apart. This explains its interest in turning the tables and making Iran the primary enemy of the Arabs.
The alternative alliance proposed by Ahmadinejad, which neither Syria nor Turkey is far from, has not come out of nothing. Rather, it is based on a realistic view of the changes that have been taking place in the region for thirty years and to this day. Rapprochement between the three countries is no secret to anyone. Such rapprochement revives the old alliance, but with different political directions, and Syria replaces Israel within it.
Ahmadinejad's arrival at the Lebanese border with Israel under popular and state protection, as well as his rational discourse, confirms this new reality – a reality over which the Lebanese and the Arabs are divided. The danger lies in the zeal of quarrelling sects and denominations, which seek an identity they have not found in their countries and thus ask for in heaven, after the land has been burnt.


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