The stepwise political settlement that started with the Saudi-Syrian reconciliation in Kuwait in early 2009, has reached an advanced stage with the Lebanese Prime Minister declaring that the political accusation of Syria of having assassinated his father Rafik Hariri was hasty, and that it has ended. This declaration differentiates – according to Hariri – between the political accusations made against Damascus and the progress of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is tasked with looking into the assassination and other assassinations against Lebanese figures. Nevertheless, the declaration was seen as a natural culmination for those who have been observing the gradual detente between Riyadh and Damascus regarding a wide array of regional issues, while causing a shock among some in the Hariri circles, supporters and allies in the March 14 coalition, and even to some of his opponents. These failed to grasp the political depth of Hariri's announcement, and began to demand him to do more unaware of the major political shift that this political turning point has engendered in the Lebanese-Syrian relations, in the context of the continuous development in the nature of the relationship between Riyadh and Damascus. For those who were neither shocked nor surprised, it was expected that the agreement between Riyadh and Damascus would encompass the repercussions of the assassination of Hariri. Those have been observing the reconciliation and its progress unfolding and thus came to the conclusion that despite the fact that the Hariri issue was not on the table in the beginning, the day would come where it is agreed on how to address it. In reality, this subject began being addressed since talk started of the need for Hariri to assume the post of prime minister prior to the parliamentary elections in June 2009, which then translated into a decision to support this intent after the elections, i.e. 16 months ago. In the period that followed the elections over which a minimum level of Saudi-Syrian rapprochement agreed to hold, this rapprochement evolved into a higher level. One of the broad lines of it was the need to facilitate the formation of the cabinet, to preserve Lebanese stability and the need for reconciliation President Bashar al-Assad with Hariri. Since then, the Saudi-Syrian agreement has been progressing in tandem with the cooperation between the two countries in other important topics such as Iraq, Yemen and naturally Lebanon. This is not to mention the two major Arab countries' bid to narrow their differences in other important issues such as Palestine and the relation with Iran…etc. In fact, some of those who expected that a retreat from “the political accusation” against Syria will take place by its main opponents in the recent years, based their prediction on the keenness of a number of Arab countries that encouraged the formation of the International Tribunal to avoid accusing Syria on one hand, but to simultaneously benefit from the campaign against it to put pressure on Syria in other regional topics on the other hand, and in what regards the broad conflict in the region that started in the aftermath of the Iraq war. This is with a view to push forward a settlement between those countries and Damascus over this accusation, when the time would come. Until then, it was necessary for these countries to benefit from the accusation made against Damascus. Others who expected a retreat from the political based their prediction on Arab ‘recommendations” that had been previously given to the champions of these accusations which said: “Damascus has already paid the price for the assassination by withdrawing from Lebanon, and this should be enough”. For years, this statement has drawn the features of the settlement that Saad Hariri's declaration was a fundamental practical step in it. Hariri's involvement in this agreement required him to voice a bold position such as the one he declared in his capacity as the ‘blood avenger', a position he had been preparing for months now by stressing that he has opened a new chapter with Damascus, and by returning to coordinate with Syria on a number of foreign issues on the basis of Lebanese independence in certain stances in contrast with had been the case before 2005. As such, Lebanon finds itself now before a different Saad Hariri than the one who previously led the sharp battle with Damascus. And because this settlement requires concessions and offerings from both sides, while taking into account the differences in the balance of power between Damascus and Beirut, logic would require that on the other hand, there is a different Syria taking shape, different than the one which fought a bitter struggle with Saad Hariri and his allies in the past years. One must thus keep an eye for what the ‘different' Syria will offer to the ‘different' Hariri (and hence to the different Lebanon), because it is not possible to be contended with the requirements of settlements alone with Riyadh, while Lebanon and Hariri are important partners in this settlement. Hariri has changed them, and the remaining challenge is for Syria to change its conduct in Lebanon in return. The Hariri family had said on March 14, 2005, “See you again, Syria and not goodbye”, through the martyr's sister Bahia Hariri, and one may assume that Syria will meet them halfway.
