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Iraq: The Fate of the Political Process
Published in AL HAYAT on 18 - 08 - 2010

The Iraqi killing series is ongoing with the continuation of the political predicament. Nouri al-Maliki for his part is uninterested in ending the crisis, which is at least allowing him to remain in his post as prime minister and continue to rule. His “allies” in the Alliance have so far been unable to remove him from his post and are wagering on full decay to impose another prime minister in the next government. As for Iyad Allawi, he was also unable to secure a majority allowing him to translate the outcome of the elections and assume the premiership of the government. The Kurds, on the other hand, are comfortable in their province and have plenty of time for negotiations, talks and promises of alliances to whoever offers more to their province. In the meantime, the American occupation forces which lost total political control are only interested in respected the military pullout schedules.
It is expected to see the repetition of what happened yesterday when terrorism reaped a large batch of victims in several areas of the country. This killing series will not be stopped by the exchange of accusations over the responsibility for the shortcomings and the facilitation of terrorist acts, just like it will not be stopped by the scoring of points against this or that security apparatus. The continuation of terrorism and its ability to strike on a daily basis is the responsibility of those responsible for the political crisis. Indeed, how can terrorism be fought, with all that this implicates in terms of political, developmental, military, security and intelligence measures, in the absence of the capacity to form a government reflecting the will of the voters and the size of the political powers which could be represented in it?
The illusion of fighting terrorism in light of the continuation of the current governmental crisis is only enhancing the aptitude of the terrorists to exploit the governmental vacuum, seeing how the first and main gateway to confront terrorism and save hundreds of victims on a weekly basis, lies in the ability of the of the political sides to realize that their disputes are encouraging the terrorists to strike and providing them with the climate to carry out their instigation, mobilization and recruitment.
Moreover, the continuation of the governmental crisis is enhancing the conviction that the political process is a failure. The biggest proof for that is the predicament faced by this process following the staging of elections which did not produce an overwhelming majority, and did not convince its sides that the Constitution imposes the submission to the majority, even if it is by a small margin. In that same context, the discontinuation of the talks between the State of Law Coalition and the Iraqi List against the backdrop of Al-Maliki's description of Allawi's bloc as being representative of the Sunnis, revealed the necessity to reconsider the entire political process as one of its sides is refusing to recognize it unless it allows it to rule uncontested. Regardless of the difficulties facing Al-Maliki with his “allies” in the Shi'i Alliance, he does not see any problem facing his presentation for a second term at the head of the government, except the Sunni representation which he assumes exists in the Iraqi List. In other words, he is expressing reservations over, or more like an opposition toward this representation, assuming that the Iraqi List represents the Sunnis, which it does not. This is undermining the political process in Iraq, in addition to the participation of all the political, sectarian and regional components in it, in the presence of an insistence on excluding Sunni representation even it is through a bloc which describes itself as being national and trans-sectarian.
Terrorism is infiltrating this flaw in the political process and it is likely that this infiltration will be exploited to justify the exclusion of Sunni representation. This exclusion will then likely be exploited by terrorism to instigate mobilization and recruitment, which will lead Iraq toward a vicious circle of political crises and violence and raise a large question mark over the fate of the political process.
By giving a positive image of the current situation in Iraq, the United States only wishes to show the success of the pullout process adopted by President Obama's administration. However, its inability to form a government until now, although its top officials have moved to Baghdad before the completion of the pullout, is yet another proof for the predicament facing the political process which has even exited Washington's will, before its troops were withdrawn from the country.


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