Certainly, Iran was not wagering on President Barack Obama and his call for openness to enemies and rivals, to guarantee that the country would not face harsh international sanctions. Obama as candidate, and then president, has changed considerably. He has retreated from the policy of openness he put forward at the beginning of his term. In Washington, they now compare his policies to those of George Bush. However, he is quite different than the recklessness of the cowboy. It is closer to the essence of the policy of “wise men” among neoconservative ranks, but smarter, especially with regard to Israel. Bush could have made threats using his nuclear arsenal and thousands of soldiers to halt the Freedom Flotilla headed toward Gaza. The Obama administration gave diplomatic cover to the Jewish state and used the opportunity to sell the Palestinians a small part of their right to live, and the visit by the secretary general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa. The visit neither fed nor enriched the hungry people of Gaza. The American stance was expected, and the indicators were obvious. However, Iran was surprised by a dual slap from China and Russia, which it absorbed coolly. At first, there was nonchalance. Iran's wagering on the struggle between Moscow and Washington belong to the 1970s and 1980s, when the Soviet Union was the second superpower, and had bases in the region, which it supported in order to strengthen its positions and spread its ideology. The Iranian wager, in this sense, was misguided, but was understood as part of its Middle Eastern policy, a region whose states are based on religion and sect (Israel strengthens this orientation). Aware of this reality, Tehran added commercial and economic interests to its international policies. Russia, which under Vladimir Putin, has recovered its influence in its previous empire and helped build Iran's nuclear reactors, and supplied it with weapons – Iran was betting that Russia would not abandon it, especially since Russia understands better than anyone else how long the nuclear program has been delayed, and how much Tehran relies on it to complete it, not to mention that the program is subject to the conditions of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran might have wagered on a wing in the Kremlin aspiring to recover the influence and role of the Soviet Union in a confrontation with the United States. There are many indications from Moscow in this direction. Russia opposed any American intervention in its Asian sphere. It opposed the missile shield in its European sphere. However, it appears that a pro-western wing won out and supported sanctions, preferring its interests with the US and Europe over a move toward a weak Asia, which can be easily dominated. So much for the Russian slap; as for the Chinese slap, it was even louder. Beijing, which has tolerated the existence of Indian and Pakistani nuclear weapons, could have tolerated a nuclear program that Tehran says is for peaceful purposes. It could have used this as a card in its struggle to end the unipolar system, represented by the US. However, China preferred its interests with America and the west, after it was promises oil as compensation for Iranian oil, and voted with the sanctions on Iran. The China of Mao Zedong is no more. The market economy and capitalist development is more important than all ideologies for China. Its huge investment in US T-bills is matched by nothing else. Its relationship with the European Union provides it with a huge market for its products. China and Russia chose economic interests over ideology. The world has changed. Everyone is confronting a new reality. It is a reality of capitalism being dominant, despite its defeats, and stumbling, and ills. The pressure on Iran is aimed at seeing it leave behind its old revolutionary situation and make the transition to a new one. However, leaving behind this situation will be at our expense. If it recovers its role in the west and reconciles with Israel, it will be able to possess the weapons it pleases, and regain the glory of the Shah, when it was the policeman of the Gulf.
