Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blows the first candle of his second term of office and smiles. The regime is not threatened, at least in the near future. The Supreme Leader's umbrella is tightly stretched over the President's head, keeping at bay the accusations of oppositionists and the questions of some of those who reside inside the regime's passageways. The military security machine is mobilized to crush any protest movement. The Revolutionary Guard leaders do not lose any opportunity to confirm their full and absolute allegiance to the Supreme Leader and the President. The President's smile does not mean that the picture is rosy. The fist he brandishes does not hide the Republic's state of tension. The absence of a dangerous and direct threat to the regime does not mean that the regime is going through its best days. It is true that the Green Movement did not dare take to the streets to avoid a blood bath. It is also true that a year of strict oppressive practices has bore fruit, and that going through a test of strength in the street following the fourth package of international sanctions is not appealing. But it is also true that the street did not dare allow those who criticize it to stage a peaceful protest. It must be said that the Green Movement did not come forth with evidence on the rigged elections which it protested against, or on whether this changes the results of the presidential elections. It is obvious that the Iranian regime did not turn into an isolated regime from the inside. But it is also obvious that the regime no longer has the absolute mandate that used to be one of the main reasons behind its assurance. It can be said here that the Iranian regime refused to heed the message sent by the protest movement a year ago. Its appeal to those who were born in the shadow of the Revolution has declined. It is hard to believe the accusations that almost put Mehdi Karoubi, Mir Hossein Moussavi, and Mohammad Khatami in the category of cheaters, deceivers, or those whose actions are dictated or exploited by external forces. The authority curbed the protesters, but this does not cancel out the fact that the regime's aura was affected and that the role of the Supreme Leader himself became a subject of controversy and conflict for the first time ever. The year that was wasted by the regime on the internal level was also lost on the external one. The Iranian regime wasted the extended hand opportunity that was offered by Barack Obama. The US President had an actual interest in achieving what this front carried. He needed to show that he had different approaches. Iran did not grab the opportunity and acted according to the logic of one that wants all or nothing. The past Iranian year was the year of wasted opportunities. Tehran failed in dissipating the doubts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It exaggerated in stalling and postponing. The past days proved that this failure is costly. It also failed in the same context in reading the improved relations between Washington and Moscow following the US flexibility in the missile shields file. The Iranian diplomacy registered another failure, which is perhaps more dangerous. It is the failure to convince China not to support the sanctions decision despite repeated talks about the importance of the Iranian market for China, which is eager for oil and investment opportunities. In fact, the international resolution drained a significant part of the success achieved by Iran through the agreement it signed with Turkey and Brazil. All this was accompanied by a tarnished image on the regional level. Recep Tayyip Erdogan succeeded in highlighting the Palestinian issue on which Iran depended to strengthen its presence in the Arab and Islamic world. This success revealed that Iran's ambitions for leadership clash with serious obstacles, including the nature of it belonging and the rhetoric it uses. Many have written in the past years about the brilliance of Iranian negotiators, and were right about it. However, the past year has ended on a stumbled brilliance. The policy of constant tension has led to the start of a state of isolation. It will come as no surprise if the sanctions magnify the economic difficulties and the tension level. The first year of Ahmadinejad's second term of office witnessed risks that can be difficultly believed to serve stability in Iran and the region.
