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Turkish-Iranian Competition
Published in AL HAYAT on 03 - 06 - 2010

Turkey, just like Iran, is acting as though the American withdrawal from Iraq will mean the end of the United States' role in the region. Therefore, both of them believe that the time is right to fill the vacuum and set up the inheritance, while the only main obstacle facing them is Israel, if we were to disregard the slight Arab opposition with which they may be confronted. Consequently, they are trying to "subjugate" the Hebrew state, but each in its own way.
In reality, the "attack" the Turkish way has entailed better results so far. This is due to the fact that - despite the fiery aspect prevailing over the rhetoric of the Turkish leaders nowadays - Turkey is relying on diplomacy, international relations, the economic role, political and religious moderation, the containment of emotions, the tickling of Europe's slogans on human rights and the humoring of the Americans' wish to "take a break" through a truce in the region. Hence, the Turks are closing up on Israel from all sides, are blockading it peacefully, and embarrassing it internationally. By doing so, they are hoping it will recognize the Turkish "command" which is offering guarantees to see its acceptance in the region through promises to turn the Middle East into a "heaven" based on mutual recognition and wide economic exchange – provided that it responds to their demands and commits to the limits of the role they are drawing for it, which would call for the retreat of the basic principle on which it was founded, i.e. that of military power.
As for the Iranians, they are relying on a different approach based on gradual "ironing" through the sponsorship of violence fronts around Israel, whether in Lebanon, Palestine, or maybe even in other locations prone to follow in their footsteps. Through these fronts, it is waging limited confrontations. But each time, it is taking these confrontations to the next level in terms of armament and threats to "convince" Israel of the seriousness of its ongoing rejection of the leading Iranian role in the region. So far, the Iranian style has suited the mentality and doctrine of the Israelis who are responding by raising the level of violence and threats and using this as a pretext to earn the support of the world, which is already disconcerted by the Iranian rebellion against its standards.
Turkey and Iran are competing over influence in the countries surrounding Israel. Indeed, they are both weaving exceptional relations with Syria while in Lebanon, the first is offering political sponsorship to the Sunnis and the second perceives the Shiites in it as being part of its security. In that same context, they are both attempting to infiltrate the social and political fabric in Egypt through the opposition in general and the Muslim Brotherhood in particular, while at the same time trying to enhance their influence in Iraq, even if in a different way. Nonetheless, the most heated arena of the competition for the time being is Gaza, with Iran providing rockets, funding and training to the "Jihadist" movements and instigating the continuation of the military confrontations and with Ankara sending aid and political support and seeking to lift the blockade to move Hamas to the political square.
However, between the Turkish and Iranian momentums in the region, most of the Arabs seem to be in a state of defeat and settling for the role of bystanders, while some are cheering in favor of this or that camp without truly being able to affect the situation. In this context, the "battle" waged by Tehran to consecrate the name of "Persian Gulf" and Erdogan's statement during his last speech regarding the fact that Turkey "is not like the other states in the region and is not a tribal state" probably summarize the way the Arabs and their role are perceived by the two latter countries.
In the end, although its new national security strategy is calling for "the drafting of a new world order that would reflect reality in the 21st century" and for the "opening of channels and working with new rising powers" - which was understood as being an American relinquishing of foreign interference - the United States has not yet reached the level of giving up on Israel or leaving it alone in the face of the ambitions of Ankara and Tehran.


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