Nearly two months have passed since Iraq's parliamentary elections, and there is still no government. The results have been announced, but they did not lead to the formation of a Cabinet that reflects the wishes of the voters, who gave the parliamentary bloc of Iyad Allawi, the rival of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a simple majority, in a vote that surprised the Iraqi government. This resulted in endless objections by al-Maliki, which blocked the formation of a government. One time, there was the pretext that fraud had taken place, and perhaps this was the first time in the history of elections in which a government complained about fraud being committed against it! Another time, there was the pretext of preventing supporters of the Baath from entering power; this was carried out by the pro-Maliki body that checks the affiliations of candidates, which “discovered” after the results came out that some winners belonged to the Baath and decided to exclude them, and the voters who voted for them, accusing both of objecting to this decision. On the third occasion, there was a recount of votes in Baghdad, at al-Maliki's request. The Iraqi capital is represented in Parliament by 68 seats, meaning that if the new count were in al-Maliki's favor, it would change the results, and thus generate a wide-scale political crisis in Iraq. Except for Nuri al-Maliki, no one doubts the results of the Iraqi elections, whether election observers, politicians or others. This can only mean that the Iraqi prime minister feels that the Iraqis “made the wrong choice” when they preferred to vote for a list representing all Iraqi groups, and which might take the country out of its current sectarian polarization. Thus, al-Maliki decided to get around these results by various means, all under the slogan of “State of Law.” Then, the Iraqi prime minister complained when Iyad Allawi sought to discuss the crisis with Iraq's neighbors, and asked the United Nations to play its role and hold new elections, under international supervision. Al-Maliki complains because he considers it “intervention” in Iraqi affairs! He refuses intervention of any kind unless it is from a specific party, and al-Maliki's Dawa Party is considered to represent one of the voices of this party in Iraq. The elections of March 7 were expected to play an important role in Iraq's transition to a phase of full national sovereignty, especially after the American administration's decision to withdraw the biggest portion of its troops by August and complete the pull-out the following year. The Obama administration faces a strange situation today, as it asks Iraqis to solve their political problems and disputes so that it can carryout a withdrawal program to which it is committed. The political crisis is ongoing, and is likely to continue, with the obstacles being placed in the way of the formation of a new government, and the resulting deterioration of the security situation. All of this will make an American withdrawal more difficult, if acts of violence resume on a wide scale in the streets and cities of Iraq. Last June, parliamentary elections took place in Lebanon, and the results did not go down well with those groups that are able to oppose the situation and block the right of the wining majority to translate their victory into seats in the government. Lebanon experienced a long political crisis, from which it has exited only by blocking these election results, via a formula known as a “National Unity Cabinet.” This government has not solved any of the divisive issues separating the Lebanese. All it has done is move the veto on political decisions from the realm of security dangers in the street, to a veto within the Cabinet. Iyad Allawi might find himself, forced to accept such an option in the end, if his rivals accept it. A “National Unity” government will rob him of the right to form a government in the way he wishes, and will bring those who did not win a majority into power. However, at the least, it might prevent massacres around the country and it might not obstruct the American withdrawal time-table. It remains for Nuri al-Maliki to agree to such a solution, especially if it keeps him out of the prime minister's chair.
