Iran is celebrating the manufacture of new generations of rockets. It is keen on showing that its rockets are able to reach Israel and the US bases in the region. The message behind this is simple and crystal clear. Any attack against the Iranian nuclear facilities would imply igniting the region. Such a huge fire would have high costs vis-à-vis the region's stability and the security of its states, as well as the global economy and the great countries that do not forget where oil is located and where it passes through. Iranian officials reiterate to their visitors that there will be no war. They say that this war exceeds the capacity of Israel, which is bound to also think of the repercussions of launching its first missile. They mean to say that rockets will not pelt down on the Hebrew State from Iran only, but also from South Lebanon and Gaza. They believe that Israel will be burnt by the fire of war if it runs the risk of providing the first spark for its ignition. They exclude such an Israeli adventure unless it is part of a US scenario or a trap to lure the United States into a war against Iran. The Iranian officials also tell their visitors that what happened in Iraq has broken the fangs of the US military machine and depleted the strongest economy in the world; that what has taken place today in Afghanistan continues this depletion; that Barack Obama's administration is aware that striking the Iranian nuclear facilities implies risking the security of Israel and oil, and the safety of the US soldiers deployed in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other countries. Tehran's confidence in its military arsenal has reached a stage of exaggeration. It is enough to read the declarations of the Basij militia leader General Mohammad Rida Naji: “The US threats are nothing but ramblings of a dead man… Their aircraft carriers are nothing but cooking pans… The United States used to be stronger before and was unable to do anything about its threats. Today, the Basij are stronger and the United States weaker.” The Iranian officials stress that their country's ambitions do not exceed the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and that what it demands is a basic right for a nation that wants to progress and refuses for scientific and technological progress to be a privilege for others and a card that influences its decisions and sovereignty. During the nuclear conference held a few days ago in Tehran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad talked about “double standards”. Also, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was keen on repeating that the use of nuclear, chemical, and microbial weapons is “prohibited by the Islamic Shari'a”. What the officials tell their visitors was repeated in a clear manner yesterday by Ahmadinejad. He said that the presence of the US forces in the region is the reason for instability. He added: “They need to leave the region. This is not a request, but an order from the regional countries. It is the will of those countries… If they are interested in supporting stability in the region, they need to dismantle their military presence in it and stop supporting Israel.” It is obvious from Ahmadinejad's words that Iran considers the US military presence in the region to be a threat or an obstacle before the role that it assumes it has the right to play. It is also obvious that Iran considers that its transformation into a great country in the region which has the primary role in formulating the affairs of security and stability in it is linked to the absence of US reins. There are those who believe that Iran is more interested in grabbing the role than it is in manufacturing the bomb. They think that it is able to postpone the timing of the bomb, but that it considers it a good opportunity now for forcing the acknowledgment of its role as a great regional power in the Middle East. Among the pundits of Iranian affairs, there are those who believe that Tehran has crossed a significant distance on the path of its role expansion. They give as an example of this the impossibility of forming an Iraqi government without its blessing. The same applies to Lebanon. They also believe that this is part of its desire to turn into a political and religious reference for Arab Shi'as. As for the second key, it is the maintaining of the tension level in the conflict with Israel. The third one is the security of oil and its passageways and the enshrinement of a presence in a country that has amazing oil resources: Iraq. Hence, Iran appears to be waging a battle of roles more than one of the bomb, which can come at a later stage to move the Iranian role in the region away from any threat. It is hard to believe that the great countries are ready to give Iran such a great role, especially with the current regime. It is also hard to believe that its Arab neighbors would acknowledge its right to restructure the region according to its interests and aspirations.
